Updating my thesis on MSTR today. Anyone got opinions on the points below / any I have missed?
#mstr nostr:nprofile1qqsqqx9hacelkffcgd3ecchzjtlvwq9xn2fmprhrwnzmm2t3exee2eqprfmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujummjv9hxwetsd9kxctnyv4mqz9rhwden5te0wfjkccte9ejxzmt4wvhxjmc3u5250 nostr:nprofile1qqsr7eqpjgvhu3kpaghy4n8maxvcwm4p5djqntnxrfhn5p9fv286afqpzfmhxue69uhhqatjwpkx2urpvuhx2ucpzemhxue69uhkxcfwwfjkcctev93xcefwdaexwew2k5m
The NAV premium reduction is the biggest negative investors face vs native BTC or an ETF. Most of the other negatives are weak
Oddly, one of the biggest drivers of NAV closer to 1 could be a sustained rapid rise in BTC, say to $1m - which might hugely constrain their ability to generate as much btc yield relative to the btc they hold. However in that case, shareholders would probably still sleep at night!
Compression of NAV to 1 is a big deal. It means ATM can’t be completed accretively. However, it doesn’t mean CBs can’t be issued (volatility will remain). Have you ever come across any good research which tries to estimate what a sensible NAV premium should be? Anything we can learn from long term P/E multiple in tradfi markets?
In case you haven’t seen these mNAV trend charts.
MSTR introduces counterparty risk - the Coinbase custody risk is worth a mention. So I would definitely mention that. Albeit custody has a cost regardless of who you are - even if it’s yourself - so arguably they may have an efficient model.
Of all the negatives I think regulation / tax is one of the largest - change can happen fast in future. nostr:nprofile1qqsrsageet7ny4nganl7t9th7derscud5n8jmxzmstun9lyp6v76r6qprfmhxue69uhkummnw3ezummjv9hxwetsd9kxctnyv4mqz9rhwden5te0wfjkccte9ejxzmt4wvhxjmcwenc5g klippsten’s race to avoid the war article is still valid
Tax and regulation is a big one. In the UK we can (currently) hold MSTR in a tax free account - accessible to cash in anytime (£20k additions per year). Explains the reason for such appetite for MSTR in the UK, as can’t do this with BTC.
Yep, I’m in the UK also! Albeit for me what started out as a BTC proxy has developed out as something quite different. He’s tapping into insatiable demand for return from the capital markets, and making positive BTC yield per share in doing so.
Curios to know how you think about MSTR / BTC ETFs. I imagine the FCA will eventually get its act together and approve the ETFs in the UK, do you think there will be a big rotation? Do you think any material impact for MSTR?
Yes it’s a good question, but probably not to be honest. Lots of people predicted the same would happen to MSTR when the US ETFs came along, which turned out to be seriously wrong, so my guess is everyone tends to overthink these impacts.
