No I know for a fact there’s only 2 mil sats left that aren’t being self custodied. It’s public information 🤣

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Coins not sats

Coinbase custody alone holds more than that and isn't included in exchange data

That's my point - you are only including Coinbase exchange data, not the coins in their Custody product. Coinbase custody holds the ~600k coins in the Grayscale trust for example.

Right but aren’t those the property of the trust? For instance how would a black rock ETF use another companies bitcoin? That makes no sense

And if they did collude like FTX did with market makers we already know what happens

Also if the “attack vector” is making only custodial Btc legal wouldn’t they want to prove it works well?

I stick to the simple heuristic: not your keys, not your coins. Coinbase's keys, Coinbase's coins.

For sure, but even so.. this doesn’t tell us how they plan to attack with the 3M or so coins in institutional hands

I imagine the best way to get coins is to buy the entities that hold the coins

If we could rely on laws and the legal system to fairly and efficiently enforce property rights bitcoin wouldn't be so important.

What’s your source? These trackers are used in onchain analysis and large exchanges are pretty well tracked