People are thinking about #Polymarket all wrong.

Don’t think of it as a gambling platform, it’s a carry trade platform. You can park money on markets which are near enough certainties.

Print a 4.6% coupon on a 2 month position with the risk being Trump dies between now January 20.

How about 8.7% for a 6 month position that Trump isn’t going to waste his political capital on a topic which is already resolved.

Or maybe you’d like to print 13% in 7 weeks because you realise Putin isn’t a retard, and Israel aren’t going to be launching nukes at this stage of conflict.

There’s plenty of election outcomes which are mathematically set and still paying 1-3%. Sports outcomes remain live throughout the events so you’ll easily find games where the winner is decided before resolution too.

Some markets have low liquidity so you’re not always going to be able to do this in size, and likely you will have the occasional blowout (no different to a margin call), but with proper position strategies and laddering you could easily make a monthly salary just picking off easy prints with very low risk.

I wonder how many people are living off Polymarket income already? 🤔