I think your first point is the most important. Its part of the bitcoiner promise that there will never be more than 21M but exchanges can create paper bitcoin.

Monero on the other hand is going in the opposite direction ie off CEXs.

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I wonder if some ETFs could also be backed up with paper #bitcoin. If it could be done it WILL BE done, right?

Im not sure. I think paper bitcoin in ETFs is less likely but i have not read the etf docs. Its supposed to be 1-1 custodial.

Its the exchanges that are able to lend out your bitcoin that worry me.

Bitcoin has more than 21m right now. Count the forks/bitcoin dividends they all were happy to receive.