Custodial is non-private, so most Lightning transactions are not private by default, even if it is challenging tracing them.
Lightning is pretty private if used correctly.
The argument, for me at least, is that because of how hard it is to use that way the vast majority are using custodial wallets like Wallet of Satoshi that can see everything they do (and any rogue employees, hackers, and governments that get acces to that centralized database). Similar privacy to a bank. Even non-custodial LSP wallets like Phoenix don't offer any better privacy (they admit this on their own website)
In comparison, for the average user (by definition most users), Moneros privacy is much easier to attain. Privacy from both counterparty and third parties. Not just one.
https://gist.github.com/supertestnet/5bceb60d9c691da744a55dad3f60e65e#file-wallets-txt-L12
Discussion
Exactly. It's tentatively private from the general public, but not the custodians or anyone else that gets access to that centralized database. And if there is a data breach, which is very common, it won't be private from the general public anymore either.