According to the German newspaper BILD, Russia could attack Lithuania by this autumn (between September and December). In the article, citing experts and sources linked to NATO, the newspaper states that this could be the last summer of peace in Europe.

BILD mentioned that this would only happen if two situations occur:

Russia achieves victory in Ukraine or at least a highly favorable ceasefire brokered by the United States.

The United States hints that NATO's Article 5 does not apply to Eastern European countries or to those investing less than 5% of their GDP in defense.

In this scenario, Russia—claiming that the Russian population in Kaliningrad is at risk—would advance from Belarus through the Suwalki Gap, on the border between Lithuania and Poland, to connect Kaliningrad with Belarusian territory.

Russia has announced that it will conduct a major military exercise in Belarus this summer. It was under the pretext of military exercises that Russia concentrated forces in Belarus before attacking northern Ukraine.