Supply is extremely constrained right now in all major markets in the U.S. due to “owners” having locked in very low rates pre 2022.
When rates drop in 2024 I would expect to still see supply constrained as market rate for mortgages will still be well above what most pre-2022 home “owners” are locked in at.
It doesn’t make sense for someone to sell their house when they have a mortgage at 2.75% and have to re-enter the market at 5-6%.
I do expect to see an uptick in buy pressure when rates drop. There is ≈6 trillion in cash sitting in money market funds in aggregate right now. A lot of people are waiting for rates to drop (even a little) to dump their savings into a down payment.
I personally think that real estate continues its bull market through 2030 and the average cost of single family home in major markets will be well over a million usd cuck bucks within 5 years.