I guess this is partially because PlanB has been pushing this narrative of „phase transitions“ in the BTC price evolution. This is an empirical observation that each ATH is preceded by a halving event, that is, BTC prices grows incrementally on a log scale. This is not wrong. Moreover, I would even say, S2F model describes near-halving price dynamics really well.

But a global look at the full data is less bullish. This is because S2F assumes that one can make 10x jumps in every cycle, which is unrealistic (where should the constantly growing fiat capital come from so fast?). We have observed this during this cycle (100k wasn’t reached).

The long-term dynamics is more accurately described by a model with diminishing returns, which assumes a decrease of profit over time.