I know, but the odds (as accepted by the counter party) are that Adam is less likely to win so that balances out. The counter party is fairly sure that they will get their payout that is worth less and thinks there is a much smaller possibility they will have to ante up the more valuable winnings if Adam is right.
So while Adam stands to gain more if he wins the counter part believes that is a far less likely outcome and so is a reasonable bet.
I'm not sure it's that unlikely
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You obviously think it's more likely than the counter party so you wouldn't take the bet. The final decision of likelihood is very subjective.