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It's still going. It ends when the USD is no longer WRC.

We’re coming to find out that in the world we’re moving into (declining demographics, multipolar geopolitical landscape, etc) having the reserve currency proves to be more of a burden than a benefit. It’s easy to run financial deficits when the rest of the world is dependent on your money to trade and store value. In a multipolar world, sustained trade deficits makes you the dependent.

The United States will at some point lose reserve currency status but will retain military and economic dominance by virtue of having the most productive economy, and the largest combined resources of gold, fossil fuels, bitcoin, semiconductor manufacturing, etc.

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Discussion

Crizzo 2y ago

Our economic dominance is by virtue of having WRC, not because of any sort of American exceptionalism. Without it we won't be able to steal from the rest of the world and our economic power will fall in line with the actual value we produce. Probably still a top 5 country, but nowhere near where we currently are.

Knightstr 2y ago

Our economic dominance and WRC was by virtue of being the only viable economy on which to back a currency for the past 80 years, and continues to be so to this day.

It’s not American exceptionalism. It’s American reality. No other country possesses the American consumer. China would have to hallow out their manufacturing to shoulder the burden of WRC, something they’re not willing to do, and because of their coming demographic collapse, they lack the population to field a successful service-based economy.

Crizzo 2y ago

WRC acts as a syphon that drains the world of its resources into the US. It's theft and our success is built on that theft. 80 years ago things were different, but the reality today is the US is a bubble waiting to be popped.

Knightstr 2y ago

Correct. And if you and I know this, how long do you think other heads of state have known?

The reality is, the world is dependent on us because even getting siphoned slowly in USD is better than holding any other fiat currency. Without other countries holding the dollar, they’d have to purchase oil in their local currencies.

Good luck with that lmao

Crizzo 2y ago

Until something better comes along. Bitcoin maybe?

Knightstr 2y ago

The problem with buying oil in hard currency is, for poor nations, they end up not being able to afford energy as the price gets bid up by economies of scale.

We’re moving towards a world where energy gets priced in USD, CNY, Gold, and bitcoin, depending on who’s trading with who. And for the poor countries, they’ll have to use another country’s fiat as a reserve in order to access the energy market because they’ll struggle to acquire enough hard currency to satisfy their energy needs.