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Are you basing your calculation purely on TA?

There seem to be far too many variables at play to make that kind of prediction.

Yup, 100% Elliott Wave. As they say: "show me the charts and I'll tell you the news".

Important to caveat, this is not a prediction, yet. But it is a risk warning. Let me quantify the nuance like this:

High conviction bullish = Buy

Unclear charts = Sidelines

High downside risk = Sidelines

High conviction bearish = Short

So it's a risk warning to holders. Hopefully the nuanced logic tree makes sense.

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It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

I dont trade. My plan goes like this.

+150K - sell some coin (less than 5%)

50K - take out loan against coin (less than 10%)

It will definitely be over $150k at some point in the future.

But if it goes to $15k first, a smart player can own 4x more of it than they do now. 😉

Let's see if the macro picture clears up here.

isn't that trading?

I guess so, but I haven't ever opened a short position or bought with the intent to sell within a year.

I wouldn't ever buy fiat if my bills were denominated in BTC, but we have a ways to go still.