This is the most plausible explanation for sure. But that doesn’t mean that there are no conspiracies. Incentives to conspire also occur by emergent behaviour.

So does the recently new field of behavioural science, that studies how big groups of people behave to different stimuli.

Then there’s the iron law of institutions and the fact that all these powerful people do actually meet up frequently, are obsessed with influencing behaviour and all seem to have aligned incentives to increase the power they already enjoy.

So yes, let’s not get fooled by randomness. But let’s not dismiss the fact that conspiracies are also a natural part of