Many are wondering why the Trump administration and, primarily, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, are putting the brakes on the economy and letting US equities get pummeled.
This slide from Hedgeye nicely depicts what (I believe) is the primary reason... despite all of the garbled nonsense spewing from most financial outlets.
A massive wall of debt maturity is upon us over the next five months, which peaks in the month of April at well over $2T!!
The lower the rates in the near-term, the lower the present and future price of our debt payments following this massive and mandatory rollover.
Pulling the US economy... and inflation expectations... and Treasury yields... and equities... lower causes real short-term pain, but should lead to more reasonable future interest payments on debt and provide support for robust future growth.
Imo you way overestimate the intellect of the current ruling administration trying to rationalize a looming crisis.
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Maybe.
But I think Bessent is much smarter than most people assume.
Yeah, Bessent is very sharp. And politically very astute. I think as long as he’s Treasury Secretary, I will be confident that the adults (not the swamp but logic driven, well-intended adults) are in control.
