Many are wondering why the Trump administration and, primarily, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, are putting the brakes on the economy and letting US equities get pummeled.

This slide from Hedgeye nicely depicts what (I believe) is the primary reason... despite all of the garbled nonsense spewing from most financial outlets.

A massive wall of debt maturity is upon us over the next five months, which peaks in the month of April at well over $2T!!

The lower the rates in the near-term, the lower the present and future price of our debt payments following this massive and mandatory rollover.

Pulling the US economy... and inflation expectations... and Treasury yields... and equities... lower causes real short-term pain, but should lead to more reasonable future interest payments on debt and provide support for robust future growth.

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That makes sense!

In addition, politically, it makes sense to burn it down quickly so they can put the blame on Biden. Most of their followers will believe their talking points.

Then fed cuts rates and republicans run up the deficit so the market can rip heading into the midterms.

It doesn't work that way. You can claim it's biden's fault but under Biden stocks and economy seemed great. That message will lose epically.

Unfortunately for Trump’s followers this narrative will probably work. When every this is an occult deep state plot, anything we experiencing in the present can always retroactively be blamed on the other side, while Trump and his clown continue to be held up as the “good guys.”

That said I think debt issue is real and largely apolitical - which means our system has incentive to make it a divisive issue rather than seeking any kind of meaningful solution.

Guess we might get one or two more shots at some REALLY cheap #bitcoin tho!

I don't think so. If Trump says its Bidens fault enough times, 50% of this country will believe him.

This is potentially a rational strategy. Thanks, and I hope you’re right. Most of the garbled nonsense is coming from Donald Trump. Why can’t he just say what he’s doing?

I don't think he has some master plan. He's kinda winging it and seeing what happens.

No one who has thought it through rationally does tariff on, tariff off, tariff on, tariff off.

Or maybe it’s the usual Donald Trump chaos, with Bessent and Lutnick trying to put lipstick on a pig. I get the rate cut strategy but tariffs and tax cuts are inflationary.

So emergency rate cuts to refinance at lower rates?

Don't need emergency rate cuts to refinance at lower rates. The market determines the rate the government treasury auctions go for, not the federal reserve rate...

Just print the money.

Just continue weekly DCA on the way down until the refinance games are over I suppose. 🤷‍♂️

Exactly what the Dems wanted them to do. They're gonna get killed in the midterms. Saw a chart yesterday that March after election stocks was a strong predictor of midterms. Securing a generation of republican control was his mandate not cutting USAID or dropping the 10 year by 100 bps.

Gridlock is welcome! Neither democrats nor republicans are competent to govern.

Arguing for keeping usaid wins the award for lamest take

Informative as always. I’m a little confused by the last paragraph though. Can you elaborate a little more on how they’re pulling down inflation and treasury yields? I thought those were economy stimulating things.

I believe he is saying they want to break things such that the Fed has to respond. Economic weakness/recession may prompt them to cut rates in response to stimulate the economy, which would help them roll over the debt.

How am I doing Doc?

Ah ok, that seems to make sense. Thanks!

He's talking about long-term debts. The current situation might cause a recession -> lower expectation in the future -> lower interest rates -> lower debt payments.

Could this be a coiling spring moment for equities and Bitcoin?

Imo you way overestimate the intellect of the current ruling administration trying to rationalize a looming crisis.

Maybe.

But I think Bessent is much smarter than most people assume.

Yeah, Bessent is very sharp. And politically very astute. I think as long as he’s Treasury Secretary, I will be confident that the adults (not the swamp but logic driven, well-intended adults) are in control.

Wen next solo livestream doc for your updated feels for the game

If the peak of the debt has to be rolled over in March and April, aren’t we already too late to bring rafters down? Unless the Fed drops the rate bigly in the next 2 weeks.

The adults are now in the room. Sorry petulant children.