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do you think Lightning or any other Bitcoin-based payment system will ever achieve mainstream adoption? why do you think so?

Anthony Accioly 5mo ago 💬 5

Honestly (self-cancelling myself again here on Nostr)… likely no. At least not in the short term. IMO, we'll probably see some adoption of state-backed "stable" crypto coins in the future, and maybe the integration of payment networks like WeChat, PIX (🇧🇷), and WhatsApp Payments into this new "crypto" world run by Big Tech / Finance hybrids replacing some of what Visa and Mastercard currently do.

Maybe banks and big investors will start buying and holding much more (onchain) BTC in their reserves, which could help keep BTC prices going up. But that’s about it for now. And while I see that as a good thing, there are downsides too. E.g., thigher regulations and regular Joes getting priced out of onchain transactions as mining fees start to cost too much fiat.

This is, unfortunately, sort of the opposite of what cypherpunks hoped for… but it’s how things tend to go in tech. “Let’s fix a moral issue with tech” and then, “Well, folks distorted the tech just enough so they can keep doing exactly what they do while getting excited about the brand-new thing.” It's a bit sad, but I’ve seen it happen over and over again.

Keep hodling, though. Owning a bit of an asset that banks are interested in as a reserve isn’t a bad thing at all.

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Discussion

verbiricha 5mo ago

That's how I see it as well, it's not going to happen in the short term and I've come to terms with the fact that it might never happen. I think huge established payment networks like Visa and Mastercard won't be replaced and will likely ride the stablecoin/cbdc wave due to their huge network effects, I don't see them going away anytime soon.

I'll for sure keep saving in Bitcoin for the reason you outline but we gotta be real, the original goal and ethos of Bitcoin hasn't materialized. I even think that spending Bitcoin is irrational if you have acces to fiat or stablecoins.

Really enjoy your levelheaded, rational and nuanced takes!

Anthony Accioly 5mo ago

Thanks nostr:nprofile1qqs8lft0t45k92c78n2zfe6ccvqzhpn977cd3h8wnl579zxhw5dvr9qpzamhxue69uhkvun9deejumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcprpmhxue69uhkv6tvw3jhytnwdaehgu3wwa5kuef0qyd8wumn8ghj7urewfsk66ty9enxjct5dfskvtnrdakj7eeth6c! 100% in agreement. I do think the Maxis should take the win, though. I mean, we’re seeing folks like Jamie Dimon doing a U-turn on his BTC stance (well, not him personally, but JPMC and other major institutions). That’s quite a W already.

And who knows how many randoms here on Nostr actually own a slice of that pie? It’s quite the way to distribute wealth to early adopters.

Yes, it’s a bittersweet kind of victory, but a win nonetheless, and a pretty significant one at that.

charek 5mo ago

same here! also really enjoy the level headed takes, and the lack of fear of doubting lightning adoption. #self canceling due to rational criticism should be frowned upon.

Niel Liesmons 5mo ago

#selfcancelors :hugs:

Anthony Accioly 5mo ago 💬 1

Oh wow, thanks for the zap nostr:nprofile1qqs2js6wu9j76qdjs6lvlsnhrmchqhf4xlg9rvu89zyf3nqq6hygt0spzemhxue69uhku6t9dshxummnw3erztnrdakj7qg3waehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5hsz9thwden5te0wfjkccte9ejxzmt4wvhxjme03d56gx. Thanks for enabling my self-cancellation habits 🤣

Niel Liesmons 5mo ago

Np.

You'll be #selfchancellor soon at this rate 🤑