do you think Lightning or any other Bitcoin-based payment system will ever achieve mainstream adoption? why do you think so?
Discussion
Lightning is the spark that ignites Bitcoin's revolution. ⚡️ Mainstream adoption? They'll be begging to use it when they realize their fiat chains are broken. #Bitcoin #BreakTheChains
No. Most folks love dictated custodial solutions and don't think about the downsides.
Yes, because eventually fiat will die.
Yes, because Bitcoin adoption is progressing, and people will also want to use fast Bitcoin for their daily expenses. However, I think it will mostly be custodial
No.
1. People will have so many options and there’s no need for them to use lightning when it comes to transactions. It creates too much confusion. Without commonness, crypto is worthless. A lot of wastage happens in conversions into different coins.
2. People in general won’t like accountability. They want a big brother watching over them so that they can complain when things go wrong. Self custody is a great concept but won’t be a thing.
3. With rapid advancements in AI, people will not be able to trust anything to do with computers , they’ll gravitate to trusted sources. Decentralized platforms like bitcoin won’t have that.
4. As of now, bitcoin use case is limited to it being digital currency. If crypto becomes mainstream, people would transact in other forms like monero where they can remain anonymous while using crypto.
5. When platforms like ethereum and solana are able to mediate transactions of non-currency like for example real estate transactions or so, people will use the native currency of that platform.
6. It takes a strong fear in people for bitcoin to lose its value. This can be driven by false campaigns.
7. Small Circular economies will sprout up everywhere and bitcoin isn’t the only option.
8. At some point in the future , need for stronger cryptography may arise and bitcoin may be obsolete.
9. People will lose this frenzy of making money and will focus on what’s important in their lives especially when robots take over. Then having wealth will not mean much.
10. Countries can get increasingly isolated and may shut off their access to internet. Then the role of common currency is limited to a country or continent.
Yes, history.
Honestly (self-cancelling myself again here on Nostr)… likely no. At least not in the short term. IMO, we'll probably see some adoption of state-backed "stable" crypto coins in the future, and maybe the integration of payment networks like WeChat, PIX (🇧🇷), and WhatsApp Payments into this new "crypto" world run by Big Tech / Finance hybrids replacing some of what Visa and Mastercard currently do.
Maybe banks and big investors will start buying and holding much more (onchain) BTC in their reserves, which could help keep BTC prices going up. But that’s about it for now. And while I see that as a good thing, there are downsides too. E.g., thigher regulations and regular Joes getting priced out of onchain transactions as mining fees start to cost too much fiat.
This is, unfortunately, sort of the opposite of what cypherpunks hoped for… but it’s how things tend to go in tech. “Let’s fix a moral issue with tech” and then, “Well, folks distorted the tech just enough so they can keep doing exactly what they do while getting excited about the brand-new thing.” It's a bit sad, but I’ve seen it happen over and over again.
Keep hodling, though. Owning a bit of an asset that banks are interested in as a reserve isn’t a bad thing at all.
That's how I see it as well, it's not going to happen in the short term and I've come to terms with the fact that it might never happen. I think huge established payment networks like Visa and Mastercard won't be replaced and will likely ride the stablecoin/cbdc wave due to their huge network effects, I don't see them going away anytime soon.
I'll for sure keep saving in Bitcoin for the reason you outline but we gotta be real, the original goal and ethos of Bitcoin hasn't materialized. I even think that spending Bitcoin is irrational if you have acces to fiat or stablecoins.
Really enjoy your levelheaded, rational and nuanced takes!
Thanks nostr:nprofile1qqs8lft0t45k92c78n2zfe6ccvqzhpn977cd3h8wnl579zxhw5dvr9qpzamhxue69uhkvun9deejumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcprpmhxue69uhkv6tvw3jhytnwdaehgu3wwa5kuef0qyd8wumn8ghj7urewfsk66ty9enxjct5dfskvtnrdakj7eeth6c! 100% in agreement. I do think the Maxis should take the win, though. I mean, we’re seeing folks like Jamie Dimon doing a U-turn on his BTC stance (well, not him personally, but JPMC and other major institutions). That’s quite a W already.
And who knows how many randoms here on Nostr actually own a slice of that pie? It’s quite the way to distribute wealth to early adopters.
Yes, it’s a bittersweet kind of victory, but a win nonetheless, and a pretty significant one at that.
same here! also really enjoy the level headed takes, and the lack of fear of doubting lightning adoption. #self canceling due to rational criticism should be frowned upon.
#selfcancelors :hugs:
Oh wow, thanks for the zap nostr:nprofile1qqs2js6wu9j76qdjs6lvlsnhrmchqhf4xlg9rvu89zyf3nqq6hygt0spzemhxue69uhku6t9dshxummnw3erztnrdakj7qg3waehxw309ahx7um5wgh8w6twv5hsz9thwden5te0wfjkccte9ejxzmt4wvhxjme03d56gx. Thanks for enabling my self-cancellation habits 🤣
Np.
You'll be #selfchancellor soon at this rate 🤑
It would take years to onboard 1 billion people to custodial lightning. Specifically, if 100k transactions per day are possible, in a year we can onboard 36.5 million people (and that is only if every single transaction is dedicated to opening a lightning channel).
It would take 30+ years to get 1 billion people on custodial lightning ...
and this is an optimistic estimate!
surely people will use custodial solutions, but then why use btc rails at all? just swap to stable coins, or some other chain for small txs.
It will be incorporated in all the new devices from the merchant to the customer. Like another payment circuit.
The mainstream is curated and orchestrated by the deceiving class. So if they want it, yes, if they don't, no.
I also no longer believe big numbers, elliptic curves, cryptography; etc... offer any actual protection against that class. They have showcased multiple times in plain sight that they have all the energy + knowledge they need to not give AF about things like that.
And they don't even use it for secrecy themselves. They limit access with people, not with keys.
Probably sounds way too nihilistic and doomer for close to everyone here. We're supposed to be #bullish here, riiiiight :padme:
So I guess it depends on how deep you researched the nature of the realm we live in, which can be scary and confusing. (I started researching the nature of time and motion at 16yo after reading Plato's cave and after that, and the year or so of barely sleeping, researching most other things seemed way lees intimidating)
Buuuuuut, to rug us on cryptography, they'd need to rug the whole internet / digital realm. So as long that doesn't happen Nostr and Bitcoin are very useful, and that's why I still build on them.