I keep seeing people try to predict what the MSTR premium over NAV “should” be, as a valuation question.

However, the answer doesn’t truly exist, because it’s recursive. The current state of it is an input back to itself. It’s arbitraged, in other words. As long as there is a sizable premium, MSTR will continue issuing securities until demand is saturated for a period of time.

A high premium tells MSTR to keep issuing more securities, which in the long arc of time pushes the premium back down. A low premium tells MSTR to slow down or halt security issuance until a premium re-emerges.

And gm.