I keep seeing people try to predict what the MSTR premium over NAV “should” be, as a valuation question.

However, the answer doesn’t truly exist, because it’s recursive. The current state of it is an input back to itself. It’s arbitraged, in other words. As long as there is a sizable premium, MSTR will continue issuing securities until demand is saturated for a period of time.

A high premium tells MSTR to keep issuing more securities, which in the long arc of time pushes the premium back down. A low premium tells MSTR to slow down or halt security issuance until a premium re-emerges.

And gm.

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Wouldn't there have to be buy-able assets issued by MSTR to gauge what the premium would be (higher or lower)?

GM Lyn😃 and couldn’t agree more regarding the MSTR premium

GM Lyn

Always insightful.

MSTR is a stable coin?

Same with issuing fiat currency to buy bitcoin? Recursive. So long there is a difference, keep issuing fiat to buy?

Fiat currencies are not currently valued based on a country’s bitcoin holdings.

Whether a country wants to print currency to buy bitcoin is mainly a question of how much they want to devalue their citizens’ cash savings and transfer that value to the state.

Not out of the realm of the possibility for an institution that is inherently conflicted and prone to moral hazard. Walter Bagehot knew that from the outset.

Yup and that premium only exists if more people buy.

GM ☕🫂 PV 🤙

Focusing on NAV is wrong headed IMO. MSTR generates revenue from the volatility of their bitcoin holdings by offering financial products to investors. EPD generates revenue moving material through their pipelines. Walmart generates revenue by selling goods for more than they purchase them for. Not sure why everyone chooses to ignore MSTR’s revenue but not other companies’. 🤷‍♀️

GM Lyn

gm

GM Lyn!

GM 😎

Yes, the key is that “It has an input back to itself”

Unless, this time is different(the most famous last words in investing), what is an 80%+ drawdown going to do to all this debt pyramiding ? Pass the popcorn.

Almost nothing unless it goes down and stays down. Mstr debt is not collateralized

Margin calls. Theyre the killer

Margin calls are a thing for Saylor, he admits it. Says hes not concerned

https://decrypt.co/102897/microstrategy-saylor-margin-call-bitcoin-21000

The margin call was for the silver gate loan and only if he can’t post any other collateral. It’s Closed already

https://www.microstrategy.com/press/silvergate-bank-issues-205-m-loan-to-macrostrategy-collateralized-by-bitcoin_03-29-2022

The new convertible bonds don’t have a margin call cause it’s not collateralized by bitcoin

He already saw an 80% drawdown.

Nothing happened.

Hes been pyramiding since then.

Bitcoin keeps going up...

Sure .Bitcoin will go to $1m+. Its the volatility that kills the margin holders.

Regular MSTR holders?

How?

An 80%+ drawdown and margin calls would mean assets must be sold to meet the call and MSTR would be shaken out of their BTC holdings. That would materially impact the stock price by a balance sheet impairment both directly from a BTC fall and having to sell other assets to meet the margin call.

Saylor is far more intelligent than I am, so maybe he has it covered, but I've seen legions of so-called geniuses wiped out in the markets by overextending debt in the face of volatility.

Is the amethyst client censoring my posts again ? Maybe its one of the 4 or so relays. Lol! Whatever it is, nostr is a joke. DHT Mainline protocols and proper decentralization and should solve this train smash.

It's showing me a content warning.

It's not that easy. Please watch from 29:00 and let me know.

https://youtu.be/Yxl8H1iYS_s?si=DfoUY6MgVuiQNc9S

https://youtu.be/Yxl8H1iYS_s

His risks are much better covered. Pls watch from 29:00

I haven’t tried to understand much of it. Waiting for the post-collapse doc

And when the issuance slows down they are able to issue the converts to increase the premium over NAV again.

It’s wild.

GM

Interesting and good morning

Which is likely part of any longer cycle. If price appreciation makes their realizable BTC yield lower over time, you probably also get to an equilibrium level which might be closer to 1.2-1.5

Until $1M or higher BTC I think 2-4x premium becomes the range that trades with overall market sentiment

I’ll be honest, I don’t understand a word, but good morning 🥰

buy a little mstr and watch it.

🧡👊🏻🍻

i’m hesitant, bitcoin is all i have room for right now. i’m still young

👌

Bitcoin>MSTR

Fact 👆

MSTR could not survive without BTC.

BTC would be fine without MSTR.

But having some exposure to MSTR is not a bad idea or being against BTC. It’s kind of the opposite.

Foreal though

Gm

Need a picture, or better yet a meme

The shareholders themselves benefit from dilution. It's beautiful

Yes.

I think MSTR is making a lot of people very nervous because of how much BTC Saylor is sucking up, even if in the end he destroys the keys for some or most of it. It can keep growing like a black hole, economic singularity swallowing everything. Recursive, self reinforcing, positive feedback loop, virtuous cycle, fiat speculative attack or infinite money glitch in the matrix, whatever you want to call it, interesting to see where it goes or if it turns out to be a giant nothing burger. Too big to fail, could drive BTC to infinity in fiat terms or really tank the price.

Apart from regulatory and custody risk - he's got it all covered.

To understand recursion, you must first understand recursion.

Exactly 👍

GM Lyn! ☕ ☀️ 🫂

In addition to your core bitcoin position.

MSTR is the L2

Pamp it.

nostr:note1rm74c2kca5v4484rhyswq207tljsgdutawgezv26zz6zyarp94ts7syqls

The MSTR premium looks like the early days of greyscale.

Yes the responsible thing to do is issue more paper into the premium. When the premium turns to a discount the responsible thing to do is sell his Bitcoin and buy MSTR. We are not going to like it if it comes to that .

I’m just gonna stay away from MSTR and do the stay humble stack stats thing.