2/
Revenue rose 15.8% YoY — a deceleration from 22% in Q4.
EBITDA growth also cooled: 36.9% vs. 62.5% last quarter.
This isn’t a seasonal blip. It’s a real slowdown in monetization momentum.
Discussion
3/
Here’s the disconnect:
📈 TRC (Total Reach Campaigns) surged +82% in Q4
📉 Revenue growth didn’t follow
That gap persisted in Q1. Engagement is growing, but yield (CPMs/ad load) isn’t scaling fast enough.
4/
So what’s the thesis now?
Roku is exiting “hypergrowth mode.”
The key pivot: Can it drive consistent EBITDA + FCF growth at 20–30% even if top-line stays in the 12–15% range?
5/
The bull case rests on margin expansion + operating leverage.
At ~2x sales with positive FCF, $ROKU is no longer priced like a high-flyer.
If margins scale, the rerating can still happen.
6/
📊 What to watch going forward:
• EBITDA margin >10%
• Double-digit ARPU growth
• Narrowing TRC engagement-to-revenue gap
• DSP integrations + SMB ad demand
7/
🧨 Bear flags to monitor:
• Revenue growth <12%
• EBITDA stalling under $70M
• FCF turns structurally negative
• TRC or home screen engagement flattens
8/
Peer comps are telling. TTM revenue growth:
$ROKU: 13.5%
$TTD: 12.4%
$NFLX: 10.7%
$GOOGL, $AMZN: <10%
$DIS, $FOXA, $CMCSA: <9%
Roku is outgrowing legacy media and big tech.
9/
Even more striking: TTM EBITDA growth
$ROKU: +109.4%
$TTD: +89.8%
$GOOGL: +47.8%
$AMZN: +30.9%
Legacy media? Mostly sub-15%, some negative. Roku’s operating leverage is accelerating.
10/
The market still misprices $ROKU like a hardware company.
But it’s executing like a scaled ad platform with CTV OS dominance.
This valuation gap vs. comps (e.g. $TTD at 9.5x sales) is the opportunity.
11/
Framing update:
$ROKU ≠ just a streaming device or channel.
It’s a CTV infra + ad-tech + platform monetizer with real optionality.
A “compounder in training” — not a flashy growth story, but a scalable one.
12/
Final thought:
The market’s asking one question —
Can Roku monetize like a platform, not just look like one?
If the answer’s yes, Q1 is a breather.
If not, $ROKU stays in “show-me” mode.