We'd first have to know how many Bitcoin users are out there, and categorize them into:
- non custodial users
- custodial users
Once we know this data we can probably start figuring out a few things. For example, how many non-custodial users run nodes?
Based on the UTXO set there are likely between 1-5 million self custodial Bitcoin users
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How do we know this? Anyone can have as many addresses as they please
Hence the wide range.
You're right though, if you want to say that a real Bitcoiner is someone with >50% of wealth in Bitcoin it could be as low as 250k.