The thing to watch is who creates block templates and how many are they creating. If one party creates the majority we are in deep trouble. This doesn't necessarily cause a fork but it could be real bad if we attempted a soft fork under these circumstances.
Totally agree that futures markets should operate close to the protocol in a rapid automated fashion. This leads to more liquid and more free markets.
I don't think we need to worry about public mempools becoming unreliable. We can deal with that by looking at what blocks miners are working on. Check out this proposal: https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/second-look-at-weak-blocks/805
Thanks for the interest! I think it could be a big deal too. I'm working hard to make it a reality. :)
Antpool is already constructing nearly the majority of blocks via their proxy pools [1] (not sure about the latest figures, but with Foundry growing in dominance we’re not healing regardless).
It’s encouraging to see new pools like Ocean growing and pushing template construction back to the hashers. That alone isn’t sufficient but it’s a big step in the right direction.
Really appreciate your hard work on this!
1. https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-mining-pool-centralization/
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