The thing to watch is who creates block templates and how many are they creating. If one party creates the majority we are in deep trouble. This doesn't necessarily cause a fork but it could be real bad if we attempted a soft fork under these circumstances.
Totally agree that futures markets should operate close to the protocol in a rapid automated fashion. This leads to more liquid and more free markets.
I don't think we need to worry about public mempools becoming unreliable. We can deal with that by looking at what blocks miners are working on. Check out this proposal: https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/second-look-at-weak-blocks/805
Thanks for the interest! I think it could be a big deal too. I'm working hard to make it a reality. :)