“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
Quote by John Maynard Keynes.
I know invoking his name in the Bitcoin world is borderline sacrilegious, but I think this quote is important and true.
Yes the global financial system is fucked, and yes it will collapse. Bitcoin is inevitable. But it might be an entire lifetime before the world reaches that point.
Think about the gold bugs. They’ve been preaching the same bullet points about sound money for decades longer than bitcoin has been around. And look at them; they’re old and bitter. Because they’re 100% right. And yet the financial system has not collapsed and gold has not regained its status as the world reserve currency.
This time could really be (and probably is) different. But let’s be honest, the dollar system could hang on by the skin of its teeth (and a shit ton of nukes) for another 50 or more years.
Bitcoiners could end up the same way as the gold bugs: correct assumptions that just never seem to come true.
Sure Bitcoin will almost definitely appreciate tremendously over the next several decades, but there will probably be a lot of people making huge bets expecting Lambos who don’t get to see those massive gains for 50 years.
There’s a reality where bitcoin goes through a “winter” of harsh regulation or banning that suppresses the market and price for the last 20 years of the dying American Imperial Empire.
People who went 100% into Bitcoin could really suffer and might be forced to sell a chunk of their stack to get by, which would be sad and frustrating.
Remember Michael Burry who predicted the great financial crisis and was the first to start shorting. He was absolutely right about the market, but almost lost everything because he aped in too early not realizing how long the market can remain irrational. In his case it really worked out. It might not in yours or mine.
So what should we do about all this? I’ve heard it said that the best course of action would be to stay humble and stack sats. Can’t remember who said that though.
It’s fine to ape into Bitcoin, but I think there should be some real discussion about what the road looks like from here to global bitcoin adoption, and I think that bitcoin influencers aren’t being realistic enough about the risks because being a permabull gets them more clout on Twxtter. In the long term you’ll probably make out like a king, but be aware that there will likely be real challenges between now and then and you might not make it through.
Getting off zero and just putting away 3-5% of each paycheck is totally fine too. Do that for your whole career and your regular retirement portfolio is 50% bigger than it would have been otherwise and you get to live comfortably without financial stress.
TL;DR: Bitcoin is inevitable, but there’s a high chance of some really rough years before we make it to the other side. You should definitely stack sats, but it’s okay to have 1 foot in the traditional financial system to preserve your wealth in the medium term.
This is not financial advice. I’m an idiot on the internet.
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