Replying to ringo

that was interesting and here is my main thought about it:

the thing is, as best as i currently understand, bitcoin only goes up for two reasons:

people buy more of it, or, there's an increased demand for it.

but my main problems with this, are as follows

- cbdc is emminent, and when that occurs it will change a lot. stay with me a sec.

- when people globally "hypothetically" want to use bitcoin, but cant get any, how does that help any of them? are we hypothesizing that the entire world, is just going to use whatever liuidity is in the lightning network. and adjust the price of everything, based on an ever changing metric of how many scraps are in the digital bucket?

-are we to assume that bitcoin will only be valuable because if the holders of it are the only ones who can get it, in a post cbdc economy, this somehow makes the people holding it more useful, or more valuable somehow?

-on the last point, i would argue that it doesn't make those people more useful, primarily because human nature is such that people are greedy, and only self serving, MOSTLY and by most i mean about 90% of the global population. so you have people who cannot afford to buy food, because they are having cbdc, and their money got turned off, expired, or they went outside of their 15 minute city, or they lost too many social credit points , or what have you. and they need bitcoin to buy food and pay rent? how is this fair or even possibly imaginable, in anyones wildest dreams? it simply wouldn't take. they'd be rioting in the streets, for bitcoin to increase the market cap, so they could have a chance at having some money. even with all the halving, which just eventually brings it mathematically close to error divide by zero, there still wouldn't be enough to satisfy global liquidity needs, based on how people currently live.

where i'm going with this, is while bitcoin is a nice idea, and has a lot of cool things about it, i dont think in my wildest dreams as its presently configured, that it would *ever* satisfy the requirements for a global currency.

not today, not tomorrow, not next year. simply put, never.

and i do realize most of the things i mentioned above are largely left -out- of all the popular hype and books and stuff, unless i've missed these details.

thoughts welcome.
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Azz 2y ago

Getting Bitcoin onto lightning won't be hard. Once people want to spend it. There will come a point when the price of Bitcoin is about twice the total global wealth. Half in circulation and half in cold storage. At this point if more is held, prices will increase and you would have a better than 50% chance of selling for more than average price. That will ensure that sufficient Bitcoin gets into circulation.

My napkin calculation is that that is about 50,000,000 per Bitcoin, allowing for some lost coins or about 50c per sat.

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ringo 2y ago

interesting. apparently we're at 431 trillion, at the moment in USD. for the worlds total wealth.

taking anything like "at this point if more is held," temporarily out of the equation and just focusing on the basics

- how does this bitcoin end up circulating? when people spend it right? okay cool, i get that.

- then once people start having to use it and end up having less, it just becomes like a currency, and nobody is "holding out" to become a millionaire, well okay some will, but those without the luxury will have to spend to eat, pay rent, and so on.

- am i missing a really key point here as to how wealth gets distributed so that people can all have an equilateral access to money, other than through work and getting paid presumably in bitcoin, since in this hypothetical scenario it's all thats left?

does this mean that would (based on your calculations, put this much $ into the world for this global liquidity pool?)

1,049,999,950,000,000 ~ and how do we go about getting everyone to just use this and not something else?

also, wealth redistribution from bitcoin holders unto trusts and other mechanisms for people to get paid, is an interesting notion and hurts my head a bit :) lot of stuff going on there for the thinking.

the banking elite aren't going to leave without a fight.