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that was interesting and here is my main thought about it:

the thing is, as best as i currently understand, bitcoin only goes up for two reasons:

people buy more of it, or, there's an increased demand for it.

but my main problems with this, are as follows

- cbdc is emminent, and when that occurs it will change a lot. stay with me a sec.

- when people globally "hypothetically" want to use bitcoin, but cant get any, how does that help any of them? are we hypothesizing that the entire world, is just going to use whatever liuidity is in the lightning network. and adjust the price of everything, based on an ever changing metric of how many scraps are in the digital bucket?

-are we to assume that bitcoin will only be valuable because if the holders of it are the only ones who can get it, in a post cbdc economy, this somehow makes the people holding it more useful, or more valuable somehow?

-on the last point, i would argue that it doesn't make those people more useful, primarily because human nature is such that people are greedy, and only self serving, MOSTLY and by most i mean about 90% of the global population. so you have people who cannot afford to buy food, because they are having cbdc, and their money got turned off, expired, or they went outside of their 15 minute city, or they lost too many social credit points , or what have you. and they need bitcoin to buy food and pay rent? how is this fair or even possibly imaginable, in anyones wildest dreams? it simply wouldn't take. they'd be rioting in the streets, for bitcoin to increase the market cap, so they could have a chance at having some money. even with all the halving, which just eventually brings it mathematically close to error divide by zero, there still wouldn't be enough to satisfy global liquidity needs, based on how people currently live.

where i'm going with this, is while bitcoin is a nice idea, and has a lot of cool things about it, i dont think in my wildest dreams as its presently configured, that it would *ever* satisfy the requirements for a global currency.

not today, not tomorrow, not next year. simply put, never.

and i do realize most of the things i mentioned above are largely left -out- of all the popular hype and books and stuff, unless i've missed these details.

thoughts welcome.

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ringo 2y ago

this was in response to a note, i'll link it here later.

MadGrowr 2y ago

I think you are hitting some nerves…

What popped up in my mind after reading your note is that for the people to start demanding Bitcoin instead of government surveillance tool and obedience baton, as this is the CBDC at the end, we need a guiding light of a country or economy that has adopted Bitcoin widely.

Like we, in the Eastern Bloc had the iron curtain during the cold war and whatever western thing was able to pass through, it was a token of great freedom and prosperity.

Whatever art passed the censorship, it was admired as godlike.

We need to be able to know the truth, though. Not the marketing and propaganda narratives. This might be actually a great use of NOSTR. Fighting the narrative with people’s stories.

ringo 2y ago

if it can lead to people wanting to sever all ties with their governments in terms of blind obedience and serfdom, then great. i'd be all for that. but the main problem is people will be likely too weak to eat, if they have to put up any fight? but back to your notion

- people do learn by example, so i like where you're going here.

- people are real tired of being hooodwinked by govts, ogliarchies, royal famiies, banking cartels, and so on. the evidence is everywhere.

- people are also blindly unable to change a whole lot about their outcomes for a variety of reasons, dependence on money is one of them, hivemind is another, then you've got stuff like lack of access to education, motivation, even that they know therein life could be better, and actually yearn for it, taking actionable steps towards that, inspiring others. (again hat tip to your point earlier, about an example country.)

at the same time, the banking cartel plays dirty, and it will be very interesting to see if a country can pull this off, country wide - renouncing their memebership in the UN, and whatever other unholy alphabet soups they belong to, nato, or whatever, remain uninvaded, unsubjugated, and so on.

interesting points. thank you.

also, - having people be able to learn from others stories, i absolutely agree this is very useful.

at least here in the united states, most of the people in the town i'm in are either vaccinated and therefore somewhat lobotomized, or they're generally just doing the best they can within the confines of what system is currently in place.

what remains to be seen is what happens when they either change the system, and nobody wants it, or if they just go all along with it, like everything else, like they've been psychologically conditioned to, ala gulag archipelligo, or pavlovian conditioning, or other such things. while i do think people can evolve as a whole, or a large swath of society, in any wholesomely cohesive way- other than widespread adoption of some socio-cultural marketing trope like, if you're under 20 you might be LGBTQ2S+^Pi(r^2), or some such, or any famous marketed propaganda of the last 100 years as an other example, it remains to be seen, in my lifetime, just yet.

here's praying things can change.

MadGrowr 2y ago

Yeah, what we can do is pray, do what we do everyday and raise some freedom loving non-conformist kids that can grow their own food:)

ringo 2y ago

and get seeds that are real. which may be a problem in a few years.

MadGrowr 2y ago

We don’t have such issues yet in Eastern Europe but the situation might change.

We do grow good amount of food per household yet. Also grandparents often have small garden to keep them busy and they are willingly share products and know how but not so many young people are choosing such life.

Although, for example here, due to the lockdowns and the remote possibilities many young couples moved out to rural areas already.

So whenever the government grip is strong, the natural resistance appears.

God works in mysterious ways :)

ringo 2y ago

note ID copied to text editor so i can reply tomorrow. :) brief version, cool. :) brain turned off an hour ago. :) Yes, our heavenly father certainly does. Amen.

Azz 2y ago

Getting Bitcoin onto lightning won't be hard. Once people want to spend it. There will come a point when the price of Bitcoin is about twice the total global wealth. Half in circulation and half in cold storage. At this point if more is held, prices will increase and you would have a better than 50% chance of selling for more than average price. That will ensure that sufficient Bitcoin gets into circulation.

My napkin calculation is that that is about 50,000,000 per Bitcoin, allowing for some lost coins or about 50c per sat.

ringo 2y ago

interesting. apparently we're at 431 trillion, at the moment in USD. for the worlds total wealth.

taking anything like "at this point if more is held," temporarily out of the equation and just focusing on the basics

- how does this bitcoin end up circulating? when people spend it right? okay cool, i get that.

- then once people start having to use it and end up having less, it just becomes like a currency, and nobody is "holding out" to become a millionaire, well okay some will, but those without the luxury will have to spend to eat, pay rent, and so on.

- am i missing a really key point here as to how wealth gets distributed so that people can all have an equilateral access to money, other than through work and getting paid presumably in bitcoin, since in this hypothetical scenario it's all thats left?

does this mean that would (based on your calculations, put this much $ into the world for this global liquidity pool?)

1,049,999,950,000,000 ~ and how do we go about getting everyone to just use this and not something else?

also, wealth redistribution from bitcoin holders unto trusts and other mechanisms for people to get paid, is an interesting notion and hurts my head a bit :) lot of stuff going on there for the thinking.

the banking elite aren't going to leave without a fight.

nobody 2y ago

I so thing as the generations go on they might create something newer and better, we are only seeing cryptocurrency in phase 2 format

ringo 2y ago

i think this is the notion that's currently held, especially by people who are doing the whole monero thing.

- it's absolutely a lovely thing to have privacy with your transactions

- the powers that currently be aren't satisfied with knowing how much you have, they want to be able to control what you spend it on, and how fast you spend it, too.

- they've been working on that for the last 20 years.

- how much of a mess is it going to be while they concurrently don't give up, (or do??),

- and what the final outcome will be, should be really interesting.

okay then.

nobody 2y ago

The NSA is embedded in everything we buy, a thing commonly know around real computer geeks is all the spyware in every module we created, every raspberry pi is monitored by the NSA and NSA uses about 80% of tor network for something. We dont have privacy lol even if we buy stuff with cash they come out with new bills and take old bills out of circulation. There are components you could buy and build a pc yourself but they start around 5k a piece rn to make which an average person wont fork up just to be “anonymous” so it’s definitely an interesting mindset we have online, i know for a fact they monitor all roads in america, and theres about 4 IPV 6 drones constantly in surveillance of every state. They know who buys bitcoin which tech goes where so even “sovereignty” is nice its much an illusion. If they want you best believe they gonna find you.

ringo 2y ago

yep. i fully agree. i've been a computer geek a long time. also most people don't realize that every single bit of internet traffic, tor included, all flows thorough DARPA pipe, and is holographically catalogued and stored. There isn't a single thing that happens online that isn't recorded, they don't have a record of.

those machines at the bank that "count" bills? also optical scanners. bills as you know have been serialized for a long long time. if you want, you can think of that as bitcoin 1.0 lol.

- yes all roads are monitored, they buried RFID readers and other tech like weight bearing sensors in them from the 80s and 90s onward.

there are satellites (which are terrestrial btw, ) pointed at everything.

if they wanted to know if you farted in the middle of a cornfield in Iowa, they could figure that out.

nobody 2y ago

Thats why i look at thing more as a precursor, i try to see what build coin leads too, if you think about what you first said its almost a tool to push off the work on computers, energy, and custody aka full accountability on us. Which to me would make running things easier for them, if we are doing bulk work and they dont have to spend money and resources on it what does their money and research go to then. Its an interesting thing thats why i like bitcoin its almost like the zeitgeist they said would happen in the 90s. What makes me think more too is why all the others failed from the 80s on forward, was it lack of technology and resources or was it because those were the true models and what btc is was coordinated. I remember when btc was “illegal” then one day it wasnt when people like jack dorsey and these guys that started pushing it hard 10-14. I remember when it was only used on the dark web and then silk road and so on got shut down then main stream appeal really started happening.

ringo 2y ago

:) brain has disengaged. will try to remember to write back to this tomorrow :)

nobody 2y ago

Alot of people i talk to say this “its a ponzi scheme that disguises itself with technology like everything else since the internet became big.” Younger ones dont want to get in because they say too much people are already in it and make money off others getting in too easy, they’d rather start a business and compete with regular people who arent good at business, they look at what their competitors are and say they can do better” most people i know under 25 make more money off social media and reselling things than they do a 9-5.

ringo 2y ago

yeah what i find interesting about the young folks, most of them as you said would rather do something like sit around and "look cute" and play video games, or start some kind of as you mentioned reselling business. it's really interesting, because these outfits fit into a secondary gig economy based on already manufactured goods, and in the first example, mens stupidity, and their lust.

i've looked at twitch tv to study it briefly, and found it horrifying that some people have so many messages streaming into their channel not only is there no possible way to read it, but its almost an epileptic inducing amount to just watch their channel . what it really tells me though, is that is massive amounts of miscalibrated, and wasted human energy and creative potential. (with regards to twitch anyhow.)

kennytaylor 2y ago

I think Bitcoin gains more utility in a CBDC scenario. As the govt eliminates cash, that will increase demand for a cash replacement.

CBDC will likely start out great, widely accepted, with few downsides. But as acceptance becomes widespread, the govt will start using it as a mechanism of control. Just like the dollar (think sanctions). Just as big tech companies do--build the customer base, establish a monopoly, and squeeze for profit. Same idea, and it's inevitable.

When that happens, people will be looking for alternatives.

ringo 2y ago

I think it will be adsorbed into CBDC infrastructure at an "exchange" rate, and made illegal, under some draconian double speak law relating to security, scalability, safety or the usual crap they filter things they dont want, interrupting their status quo.

As far as cbdc being used for control, I'm pretty certain after watching WEF/financial summit, videos and reading many PDF's from the BIS and IMF, and so on for the last few years, they want more control.

anything else will have to "blend into" their plan, or else.

They're sadistic.