it won't. monero solves a narrow use-case (absolute digital cash) but most people don't give a damn about on-chain privacy; they want a scarce, credibly neutral digital asset that preserves value **at scale** → bitcoin already owns that mindshare.
downside:
- tail-emission kills "digital gold" hardness
- dev tax & centralised maint squad
- hard-fork churn every upgrade → "upgrade or die"
bitcoin keeps absorbing hashpower, liquidity, mindshare; privacy can bolt-on where needed (cj, silent payments, lightning point-knew schemes). so xmr survives, maybe even carves out a dark-market niche, but win state? nah, btc absorbs it.