How many people outside of Nostr are able to use LN in a privacy preserving non custodial manner?

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not many, which is why we have some work to do to make this easier

monero is probably the easiet if you want privacy and self custody, but I wouldn't hold my money in it.

it seems more likely I would just swap into a custodial cashu node for the amount I wanted to use (if I didn't already have a lightning node). asking everyone to accept monero seems unlikely to ever happen

The ship is too far gone. I don't see Monero adoption ever catching up.

Likewise Bitcoin will never catch up to a privacy paradigm. Hedge both bets accordingly.

Maybe not (I'm skeptical), but other layers are heading in a good direction in that sense.