It is indisputable that Venezuela is in transition. The regime prior to July 28 is dead. Either it transitions to a democracy with Edmundo González as president or it transitions to a more closed dictatorship (the regime will never allow itself to be challenged in this way again).
Discussion
The biggest problem for the "Nicaragua route" is that the opposition is not headless. The Nicaragua route was possible before the election (as Ortega did in 2021). Today, it is almost impossible to extinguish the determination and hope of millions of Venezuelans with a consolidated leadership.