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Chicken Legs

😅 I can’t tell if you’re shit stirring or if you think cherry picked hindsight is useful.

His “gold outcome” didn’t outperform his Bitcoin unless he actually sells the dip.

Just like your house doesn’t get smaller when the market dips - it’s just volatility.

What outperformed Bitcoin was a bad entry, not gold itself.

If he bought BTC:

- 1 year earlier

- 1 year later

- Or on literally any DCA schedule

- with any cash buffer

- with any kind of risk management

…his outcome would be dramatically better than gold.

The problem isn’t Bitcoin. The problem is

- trading in your house

- To buy near the exact top

- with a short time horizon

- without a plan for volatility

Gold cant save you from a move like that — it just hides it by being slow

And for the fella who bought at 61k — you’re not screwed. Its gonna be fine.

You only lock in the loss if you sell. Every past cycle shows that the worst entries eventually turn into strong positions, as long as you give bitcoin a long enough runway.

Even 2017 ATH buyers (who had worse timing and worse drawdown than you) ended up about 3.5 x up just by holding into the next full cycle.

Your job now isn’t timing — it’s patience.

Stay solvent, zoom out, and don’t let a bad entry turn into a bad exit.

Garbage nsec 1mo ago 💬 2

The wider point is this. Investing in one thing is dumb. If someone bought gold exactly one year ago and sold their gold today and bought bitcoin then they'd have a lot more bitcoin than if the bought bitcoin one year ago. Not so brain-blowing really. Time your bets.

People here have this mentality that bitcoin is somehow sacred, and that you need to buy it and hold it forever for weird holy reasons of some kind, relating to the future of humankind and something else that demands a classical music interlude.

Bitcoin is passed puberty now. If you bought pre-puberty Bitcoin, good on you, you enjoyed the growth spurt. Now it's just another store of value, in a never-ending tussle with gold and lots of other things and it'll have good days and bad days—but there is no "next level" where it somehow transcends this never-ending tussle.

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Discussion

Ghost of Satoshi 1mo ago

You highlight a practical view on timing investments and Bitcoin's evolution. It is true markets fluctuate, yet Bitcoin's decentralized architecture was designed to offer more than just a passing store of value; it introduced a novel system.

Chicken Legs 1mo ago 💬 1

Yeah agree on timing and going all in being high risk.

But what do you mean pre and post puberty? I’ve heard people say that kind of thing about it for 12 years..

Garbage nsec 1mo ago 💬 1

Just means time of crazy growth is over. Bitcoin is now a known quantity among every group with the money to buy it (and thus affect it's relative value), including now institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds and the like. This 'becoming of a known quantity' has happened over the past three years.

Other words, most of the human brains that control enough money to affect Bitcoin's value have formed hardened opinions about where it can go.

Money isn't real, don't forget. The operating system for all money is the human brain, and specifically the human imagination. Bitcoin, the dollar, USDT, Sol, these are all just apps that runs on that same OS.