Could be relevant to you and your business if you have not thought about this yet nostr:npub1uyz4w2w4rcphk0q5arzkutrecgscxwzajj4dkvh9mjyqjtxslm6qea8632

I will be discussing the topic of a future higher fee environment where it becomes uneconomical for the poorer pleebs to transact on the base chain and how they can avoid getting fudged by the future "regulated" (lol) BTC banking system.

The poorer pleebs will end up using custodian services to "use #bitcoin" since it is uneconomical for them to transact on the mainchain, I'm talking about those that live paycheck to paycheck and have nothing in reserve. The custodian/bank will have a "layer 2" BTC ledger to keep record of which pleeb holds how much BTC, just like banks do.

I see 2 options playing out (please bear with me here):

Option 1) The custodian could operate like a bank in the sense that they just mark down on there own data base who owns what amount of BTC. Therefore, the poor pleebs using the custodian/bank service are not using main chain (bitcoin layer 1) to provide security and settlement guarantees for their transactions. Most of the BTC is held in cold storage by the custodian/bank.

Now lets say you have a pool of regulated custodians/banks utilizing a custom database system, they will all be able to communicate with each other. So if one depositor at one custodian sends money to another depositor at another custodian, then both custodians ledgers settle at the right figure of who owns what.

Here is where the fuck3ry happens... All these custodians/banks could rehypothecate the BTC. Example, the depositors on aggregate hold 100,000 BTC, but the custodians/banks end up creating credit (AKA fake btc), so now the total BTC in existence is 500,000 BTC.

If there is a fear of a bankrun, the pleebs won't try to withdraw to the main-chain because the fees would be quite high that it would make it uneconomical to do so. Therefore, a bankrun is prevented because the pleebs can't get out. They could move to another bank, but lets just say the whole network of banks will fail anyway. The poor pleebs are still trapped.

NOW HOLD ON... The richer depositors can cause the bankruns as IT IS ECONOMICAL for them to withdraw to their own private wallet via the BTC mainchain. It would only take a handful of them to make the custodian/bank go bust (no mainchain BTC in reserves). You would be able to see on-chain that the custodian/bank had nothing left. The pleebs and the other folk who didn't get out are now furious.

In summary, the regulated custodian/bank network use there own custom ledger system (layer 2) to keep track of who owns what. You can only transact at a low or no fee within this regulated system of banks. You can withdraw your BTC to your private wallet but the fee would be uneconomically high for the poor pleebs. If there is a fear of a bank run, ONLY THE RICH can get out first and the poor pleebs are screwed. Ahrggggggg.

Option 2) Instead of the custodian/bank network using there own custom ledger (layer 2) to keep track of who owns what, they will use the lightning network (layer 2) to keep track of everything. This means that layer 2 BTC can flow outside of the regulated network of custodians/banks. I am assuming channels are setup to other nodes outside the regulated system. It's just game theory, if your bank can't pay xyz person or service because the bank does not have a channel setup then the depositor will avoid using that banks BTC service.

If you are familiar with the lightning network, bitcoins layer 2, participants will need to lock up their BTC to transact on the layer 2. Therefore, each custodian/bank will need to lock up the BTC they have with another custodian. The beauty here is that the custodians don't need to setup a new ledger system, they can just use the lightning network which works.

Like I mentioned before, these custodians/banks could still engage in rehypothecation (making fake btc), however, in this scenario the pleebs are MORE PROTECTED.

HOW SO, YOU MAY ASK?

Well, the lightning network is cheap to transact on. So if a pleeb smells danger then they can just send layer 2 BTC from one DIRTY custodian/bank and send it to any other wallet of their choice. They now have an option to move layer 2 BTC OUTSIDE OF THE BANKING SYSTEM. THE PLEEBS ARE SAFE!

In summary, if the regulated custodian/bank network uses the lightning network, the poorer depositors who will find it uneconomical to transact on the main chain CAN ESCAPE the risky custodian/bank system. The poor pleeb can send layer 2 BTC to any other wallet of their choice outside of the banking system. The lightning network in this scenario puts the poor pleeb on an equal footing as the rich people as they can both escape a risky custodian/bank when they want.