I think it's possible to have a decent sense of what’s false.

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Maybe, but it's not easy. Most people don't want to put in the effort.

Pretty easy to see that all one’s boosted friends still got covid, for example.

They may have gotten less sick than they would have without it though. My mom, who is immunocompromised, got the shot and still got covid, but maybe she would have died without the boost.

It’s possible, but I don’t think there was much evidence it helped.