Appreciate your update. Do you think a global trade war is a significant enough macro event to cause a trend shift if it gets sufficiently heated up? I like the logic in your model and I am personally adding to my stack below $80k.
Discussion
Appreciate the comment and the zap ⚡.
To answer your question, no. I'm doubtful that the trend line will shift, this is not a targeted attack at Bitcoin like in 2021, and the entire world's commerce isn't shutting down from a virus like in 2020. Worst case I think the trend line shifts 1 - 2%, only delaying Bitcoin's long term growth by a little over 1 week, but even that's very unlikely given this is just the FIAT systems turmoil bleeding into a Bitcoin network that has never been stronger.
Thinking about it logically, energy is still being made and converted into Bitcoin all over the planet. Current mining operations won't stop. Thus the trade war does not affect the current mining network, which is ultimately a major piece in what provides the lower resistance keeping the price up. Current mining costs average $84k, meaning there are miners that are mining at a temporary loss believing it will pay off soon enough, thus we're well below the major support from mining as it costs $84k to create a Bitcoin currently (Source: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost ).
Historically the best times to buy are when mining cost is above market price, like right now.
The only thing I can think of that might be affected is the ability to GROW mining operations. As there's an increase in the expense to grow in regions the tariffs make it more expensive to buy new equipment. As well as reduced funds available from the market sell off.
But this may just shift the buying pressure to countries that don't have these tarrifs, and aren't as exposed to the sell off. Resulting in slower mining growth in the US, that is absorbed by other countries which keeps the trend line solid.
Some might say that a big enough sell off in the greater market will lead to an equal or bigger sell off of Bitcoin, and that the lower prices globally hamper the mining network's ability to grow, shifting the trend down.
But I'm of the opinion that the rest of the market is looking for things to move money into as a safe haven. Bitcoin IMO is likely to end up being that safe haven, because it's less affected by these events than anything else as well as being possibly the easiest market to enter globally, which may be the factor that pumps the price ~unsustainably~ all the way to Q4.
🫡
☮️🧡₿
Also, the Covid shutdown saw the price of Bitcoin go from a daily low of $7606 on the March 11th 2025, to $4546.60 on March 12th, to $3869.50 on March 13th.
The trendlines expected minimum price on the 11th was $7401.09, $7416.23 on the 12th, and $7431.41 on the 13th.
So the price to trendline ratio seen over those 3 days were:
11th: 1.02769
12th: 0.61306
13th: 0.52070
That's a massive crash, and that only dropped the long term trend line by ~10%.
The price recovered to $7600+ by April 23rd, 2020.
Today's dip likely won't see that level of a drop, but even if it does it would only delay the long term growth by 6 weeks as happened in 2020. Ultimately, nothing stops this train.
☮️🧡₿