First of many milestones predicted here has been hit.
04/05/2025:
Actual price: $82,774.08
Predicted bottom: $80,000 ($80,067.71 to be precise)
Ratio between price and bottom: 1.0338
99.9% chance we're forever above $80k from now on, unless massive macro events occur that shift the trend line down again.
See y'all in June for the next check in. 🫡
Attached images were made mid March.
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Wowsa! The day after posting we 99.9% won't break below $80k, we break below $80k 😂. Well, I didn't say it was impossible. Let's take a deeper look.
Looking at my numbers if the trend line is broken, without a macro event that shifts it down on the Y axis, then the price can VERY briefly go down another ~1 - 2%~ typically outside of exchange caused glitches like what happened in 2015. No model is perfect and outliers can happen when things get unexpectedly volatile.
So my trend line minimum expected price today of $80,230.52 has been broken. We've hit more than 1% below that making this one of the most significant deviations from the overall trend since the trend itself shifted in 2021 due to the China Mining ban.
Since it broke below $80k does this mean the trend is shifting down again? IMO unlikely. I don't think it will or is, the hashrate has never been higher and the difficulty adjustment just had one of the highest increases of nearly 7%. We're almost 10% into the next difficulty adjustment epoch and it's looking like a nearly 8% difficulty increase is on the horizon. Everything is pointing to upward momentum for Bitcoin but the market is tugging HARD to get it to go down.
IMO this is likely a last ditch panic sell-off with the overall market being down so much, making this a hell of a buying opportunity before we see a massive 50%+ upswing sometime before May and kickstart this years bull bubble that may touch $1M a coin before returning to the trend a year later at around $250K. But nobody really knows for sure, there's too many variables to account for in any model.
Keeping my eye on things. 🕵️♂️
Personally not worried at all, just curious and fascinated. I've been at this a long time.
Just chill and breath, don't emotionally panic sell which you historically have always come to regret. This is potentially the biggest stacking opportunity of your life going forward. Stay calm, stay focused, things will be alright even if it's rocky in the short term.
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