I know ink has been spilled on this topic ad nauseum, by writers more knowledgeable and eloquent. But something really clicked into place for me this week, and I wanted to share.

Humanity was trapped in an endless cycle of states rising and falling. The 'good times creates weak men' meme.

States are incentivised to grow their power in order to justify their existence, because each state is nothing if not a collection of people who are self-interested. But that power must be granted by the populace.

Governments are literally incentivised to break societal bonds, to sap our strength and will, -to make us weak- so that we are inclined to grant them ever more power. If the average person took maximum responsibility for their own life, family, and community, what space is there left for a government to step in and LARP like they're solving problems?

We've been driven to this abhorrent softness over the course of generations, because this is what happens every cycle, in every land, with every people. Because we're flawed, and fearful, and imperfect.

But now we have Bitcoin, and Nostr... And I think these two things will give us enough space to break that cycle and realize our potential long term.

If you have young kids - take a look at them. When we are all gone and they are spending time with their grandchildren, the world will be a blindingly bright place.

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We are beginning a 4th Epoch. It can only get better after that.

Are you thinking of the 4th turning ? Gee, every turning is what, 20 years ?

Yes.

In reality it seems to be 20-30 years based on my own history and observations but yes. 20 is the acceptable measurement.

I gree with all of that but even if government was benevolent they would grow bigger and more coercive over time as the lack of opportunity cost is inherently inefficient.

By the way, history also suggests that rebellions are just a transfer of power, a rise in the plebs' standard, which doesn't bother to be free, and a rebel class that becomes the new privileged ruling class.

> If the average person took maximum responsibility for their own life, family, and community, what space is there left for a government to step in and LARP like they're solving problems?

Not much space, maybe I'm a pessimist, but most people will not take responsibility for their own life, family and community.

They want an authority to lead them and make hard decisions for them, because "outsourcing" decisions has been a part of human nature since before we ran around chasing antilopes with spears on the savannah.

No, not much space. We are who we are. I'm just saying that a little space, compounded over generations will eventually reshape us for the better.

I sens ideology here. If we d'dn't have states to enforce the power to kill and imprison, wouldn't we have anarchy ? Hasn't anarchy proven to be bloody and unjust ? I get the sovereign individual claim regarding btc and think it acts as a great balance of power but I'm not sure I want to live stateless yet. It's true that states are dividing us though, especially now. Whether in the US or in the EU the waves of migrants are deliberately organised by our gvt and bringing social disorder. But don't you think the main issue there is the lack of democracy with a ruling class that has stopped working for our interests. Yes BTC is empowering on an individual level but we are yet to see what it will do to society as a whole with more adoption.

I honestly think that we've discovered technology that shifts our incentives. I don't know what that means for the future - maybe eventually statelessness will make the most sense. Maybe not and it evolves into a different equilibrium with more power resting with I dividuals and smaller collaborative groups. But the way that we interact with and depend on each other will shift along with those incentives over time, and I think it will be overwhelmingly for the better.

I've heard that viewpoint before, of course it's shared amongst the cypherpunk mouvement and it comes mostly from the US because of it's history and it's appetite for cessation when the state becomes too big. But I can't help seeing an ideology which like all ideologies overlooks second order effects. It seems to me that anarchy has never been very peaceful whilst most humans now aspire to a peaceful society. So I'm not sure this ideal of statelessness will become very popular.

you are damn right

natural law

.. and the “click” moment for me was realising this has been the cycle for most of humanity’s existence .. and the hope to permanently break that cycle is compelling

Bitcoin is the longest lever against which we can push to positively change the course of history

Very well said. I'll add the state, just like religion in the past, wants to intermediate everything.

What if people don't care about govs ? govs change, wage war, tell that they are here to help... snap fingers to get attention.

What if people don't care ?