These are the two metrics you should follow to understand what the Bitcoin price will do (we have the advantage that it always does it with a delay of about 7 to 10 weeks)
Both metrics depend on human decisions so stop believing in bullshit traders and analysts.
True.
GM
Timeframe?
Net USD liquidity: 6.07 ?
And what are the metrics telling us right now?
M2 money supply looks about the same as it did around 2021.
Wouldn't that mean that the price of Bitcoin should be similar to 2021 prices?
No, there is now approximately 10% more money supply than in 2021. Now we are around 110 trillion, back then we are between 95 and 98 trillion.
The key points here are:
If usd liquidity goes up and global m2 liquidity goes up = bitcoin goes up.
If usd liquidity goes down and global m2 liquidity goes up = bitcoin goes up.
If both go down or remain stable = bitcoin goes down.
Now m2 liquidity seems to be going up, but these are assumptions, remember that they are human decisions, if m2 liquidity continues to rise and it is assumed that it does so by China since as you can see the liquidity of the dollar system remains stable, then with a week delay bitcoin will start to rise.
It is true that ETFs have meant a substantial increase in demand and have messed up the chart a bit, but this will stabilize and end up dancing around the global liquidity as happens with all assets.
It is also true that the current fall is due to ETFs as hedge funds have readjusted their positions and hence the outflows of these weeks.
The delay that bitcoin carries with respect to liquidity movements is around 7 to 10 weeks.
