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The population of the globe will not go down to zero. The last few people (and it won't even go that far) will not just decide to not have children because that is the trend and the norm.

Extrapolation is the tool of ignorance. You can extrapolate the population up towards Malthusian starvation, but you can also extrapolate the population down to zero. And believing either way is nuts.

The population will change. Over the very long term it will bounce around a lot, sometimes going down. Just because it is going down now, for the first time in our lives, doesn't mean "panic!". The only problems we will encounter are ponzi scheme collapses, but those are probably good to clear off the table now and then.

This is all I really meant by my last post about population. I wasn't defending the 1960s view. I was attacking the 2020s view.

I have more respect for Norman Borlaug than for Elon Musk.

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Discussion

Bond008 3mo ago

"The idea that we need to start having more babies is misguided"

I think people, including myself, were mainly pushing back when you said that line. Also it seems incorrect to make projections about a 10 billion carrying capacity when there is so much room for efficiency gains. Whether that be from robotics, nuclear power etc.

Be fruitful and multiply seems to be the right attitude in my opinion. We will solve the problems as needed. Of course there will be challenges. Thats why we need sound money and the right attitudes. To solve problems.

Also, mens testosterone levels in America have dropped somewhere around 25-40% since 1970 last I saw. Combine that with other environmental factors and I think people do need to be worried. Just my 2 satoshis 🤙

Mike Dilger ☑️ 3mo ago 💬 1

The easiest future with least social disruption is for all women to aim to have 3 children, 4 if they are ambitious. Why more than 2? Because many women will still have 1 or 0.

But I'm not panicked that they aren't. I don't think the downward trend is somehow unstoppable. Docos like this one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2GeVG0XYTc tend to argue that it has never happened before, that no society has survived a shrinking population. It is this which I am skeptical of.

I don't think I said 10 billion was the carrying capacity. That is the predicted population maximum before it starts falling. Not my prediction. Nobody knows the carrying capacity. With innovation it could go very high. Personally I'm not excited about such a thing, even in my smaller town I think it is too crowded. Many have suggested that the Green Revolution is the main reason that the carrying capacity is higher than it was previously.

Bond008 3mo ago

Thank you for elaborating your views. As you can see I am enthusiastically pro human.

I agree that this is not the first time and like everything else in the universe, things happen in cycles.

I understand your concern but I think with bitcoin, countries governments can shrink and we can get back to more free markets and stronger property rights.

After people use money to save instead of houses, and we get back to real competition, the cost comes closer to the marginal cost of production. People can then afford to start moving out of crowded cities and start owning their own plots of land again.

Perhaps I am wrong but I think there is a good chance of that happening assuming bitcoin stays decentralized and secure.

Mike Dilger ☑️ 3mo ago

I hope so.

BHN 🍁 3mo ago

Have you watched Children of Men? The reality of our situation is much worse than the movie came up with.

Mike Dilger ☑️ 3mo ago

I have not seen that movie. Thanks.

BHN 🍁 3mo ago

Without spoiling anything about the movie: we think we know the actual cause of inevitable global infertility, no there likely won't be a magical cure , and unlike the movie this isn't limited to humans and will likely be the 6th great mass extinction event we unwittingly unleashed upon ourselves solely because it affects almost all wildlife.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/27/plastics-leading-to-reproductive-problems-for-wildlife

https://www.earth.com/news/plastics-found-inside-vegetable-tissues-for-the-first-time/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352396423001378

https://yaleglobalhealthreview.com/2025/05/19/microplastics-and-infertility-an-invisible-crisis/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBRquiS1pis

"Que sera, sera. The futures not ours to see" 🤷‍♂️