“Truth is more Bitcoin plebs will switch to Monero”
Do you realize how difficult it is to acquire monero for the average “pleb”?
Sure the 10,000 people on nostr are technically savvy enough to purchase XMR but monero is available on 0 Exchanges, where most plebs reside.
Monero is cool but it is extremely Niche. 
Exactly we are talking about a 3 billion market cap vs a 700 billion market cap here. Why would a normal person want to buy this no name 25th place coin over any other random of the 20,000 different ‘crypto’? XMR doesn’t solve the salability and need a for common neutral good.
It's for anyone seeking sovereignty that wants to actually use something that transfers value in a private, untaintable way while not taking out half their savings in fees when they use it. It doesn't need everyone on the planet to use it to accomplish that goal.
Normal people aren't going to use Bitcoin either when their Bitcoin ETF and CBDCs are free to use, quick, accepted everywhere, and they still get price exposure
p2p exchanges are not more difficult to use than non-custodial LN wallets. you aren't seriously suggesting that p2p is an insurmountable barrier compared to managing payment channels.
I don’t think p2p is too hard but is it widely known for them to do the work to do that? No. They’ll just find some other shitcoin on exchange before they go learning about buying a coin on p2p. I would also make a counter point to your argument about this being similar to non-custodial lightning. It’s not even close non-custodial lightning wallets are pretty new, monero has been out for years dwindling volume.
Monero isn’t a common neutral good so it has a salability issue. If you ask most normies if they’ve heard of bitcoin they’ll say yes. Monero would get a small fraction of “yes” to that question relative to overwhelming “no”
Monero is the growing choice on DNM free markets where people have real skin in the game. It's even Bisqs highest volume trades after Bitcoin.
The whole world is never going to onboard to either Bitcoin or Monero. The masses prefer convenience over self-responsibility and sovereignty.
Nation states will never let them operate unrestrained on white markets. Global adoption is a fantasy.
