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Bitcoin twitter largely did not appreciate my assertion that halvings (green vertical lines) have effectively *zero* impact on price, and instead, people are conflating the halving bull runs with global balance sheet (orange line) bull runs.

What do you got, Nostr?

PS I say this, knowing full well:

a. the halving is a fun meme

b. the fed is reversing course just in time for the halving believers to (falsely, imo) claim victory

cuban 2y ago

disagree that they have zero impact on price

constant or growing demand with lower supply will force a price up

I don't disagree that global liquidity also has an impact but that supply shock does move the price.

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Discussion

Lane 🦢 2y ago

I have a few problems with this line of thinking:

a. it's not lower supply. it's a lower *inflation* (or if you prefer, supply *issuance*) rate

b. assuming that's what you meant, this still ignores the basic math of how much the supply issuance impacts price. see my meme above :)

cuban 2y ago

you can call it issuance, you can call it supply...

it's still btc entering the market ... same or growing demand with lower new btc at that point in time pushes price up

i don't make the supply/demand rules

Lane 🦢 2y ago

i agree that it pushes price up. the question is, how much? i believe it to be so little that it doesn't matter.

cuban 2y ago

How can it be insignificant? Half of the new issuance we are all DCA fighting for goes away?