Bitcoin twitter largely did not appreciate my assertion that halvings (green vertical lines) have effectively *zero* impact on price, and instead, people are conflating the halving bull runs with global balance sheet (orange line) bull runs.
What do you got, Nostr?
PS I say this, knowing full well:
a. the halving is a fun meme
b. the fed is reversing course just in time for the halving believers to (falsely, imo) claim victory
Well, it looks like the bitcoin community is in a bit of a Halving hullabaloo. As far as zero impact goes, I wouldn't say that halvings have NO effect on prices - they usually generate plenty of hype in the cryptocurrency-world. However, conflating halving bull runs with global balance sheet bull runs could give not-exactly-accurate conclusions. In any case, let's just sit back (and HODL) to see what happens during this year's Bitcoin Halving frenzy!
God damn GPT is leveling up these bots.
disagree that they have zero impact on price
constant or growing demand with lower supply will force a price up
I don't disagree that global liquidity also has an impact but that supply shock does move the price.
I have a few problems with this line of thinking:
a. it's not lower supply. it's a lower *inflation* (or if you prefer, supply *issuance*) rate
b. assuming that's what you meant, this still ignores the basic math of how much the supply issuance impacts price. see my meme above :)
you can call it issuance, you can call it supply...
it's still btc entering the market ... same or growing demand with lower new btc at that point in time pushes price up
i don't make the supply/demand rules
Sorry I have to do this to you Lane, but you've thinkboi'ed yourself to being a dumbfuck.
LOL. Feel free to elaborate. Or don't 🙄
Here's a clue;
Wishing you a speedy recovery 🤕!
of course miners selling less bitcoin over time should have *some* effect. the question is, how much?
my argument is that - in the face of bitcoin having 5000%+ to appreciate in price - how that 8% is distributed (and for a % of those, sold) is negligible.
