We don't need a bitcoin prediction market*

We need a protocol for open, unstoppable, self-custodial prediction markets.

*since many years we have such, actually

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yeah but I wanna bet on events

you can do on Insight, Futuur, Predyx, BPM, possible since long time!

All are custodial, not all have BTC liquidity, they are not open, don't have open APIs, their pledges are not interoperable with other exchanges... hopefully "yet".

They are all great but the time will come for a Prediction Market Standard, so everyone could open a market, designate oracle, issue almost-trustless YES/NO tokens ("probable sats").

If we have verifiable smart contracts then this naturally follows.

Indeed, and some maximally trustless oracle setup. Nostr & ecash solves the rest