Replying to Avatar waxwing

Yes of course that's not realistic, it's designed only to point out the difference in an obvious way.

In the real world, if the polls are say 60-40 for an extended period close to the election, the pred market is likely to be 95-5 or similar, *if* the market finds the polls trustworthy. It is not going to be anywhere near 60-40. Again, they are not measuring the same thing!
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Adam 1y ago

Right, and polling is designed (IMO) to perpetually make the race look close to keep people engaged.

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waxwing 1y ago

Well, a poll doesn't *have* to be close. Also is it bad if people are engaged? I guess that heavily depends on your worldview :)

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Adam 1y ago

Engagement is good but deceptive polling can lead people to believe there's broad support for otherwise unpopular policies. IMO this is why people distrust polls, and thus the prediction markets struggle to predict the outcome with >X% certainty.