So M2 trumps 4 year cycle? The diminishing returns are true?
If you want to see realistic predictions look at the red line (lows) and green line (mean) of the power law model. Don't even look at the highs line, it is possible that this line will no longer be reached, in fact this cycle will not, it is literally impossible.
If you understand the relationship between m2 money supply and bitcoin are simple mathematical calculations, it is not going to print all the liquidity needed for bitcoin to exceed even 200k in this cycle and the model tells you 380k at present.
Discussion
What no one sees is that the liquidity cycles have aligned very well with the 4 year cycles of Bitcoin, maybe Satoshi knew this, Satoshi was an expert in monetary theory.
On the other hand the decreasing returns are natural, to move the price of Bitcoin more and more money is needed as its capitalization is increasing.
Only a hyperinflationary event would break this, the global money supply (m2) has a fairly steady growth, around 6-10% per year.
I totally see that alignment and it seems we had an extended protracted period now and expansion is only just ramping up which is probably going to miss this cycle. Which makes things curious what happens next year.