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Replying to

Cyph3rp9nk

I liked Max, until the character swallowed the person.

He has been predicting 220k for years, the 220k will arrive between 2028 and 2030.

Now he's predicting 2.2M, this will come if it comes later than 2040.

These predictions hurt Bitcoin because they are unrealistic and create false expectations for people.

Cyph3rp9nk 10mo ago

If you want to see realistic predictions look at the red line (lows) and green line (mean) of the power law model. Don't even look at the highs line, it is possible that this line will no longer be reached, in fact this cycle will not, it is literally impossible.

If you understand the relationship between m2 money supply and bitcoin are simple mathematical calculations, it is not going to print all the liquidity needed for bitcoin to exceed even 200k in this cycle and the model tells you 380k at present.

https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/

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Discussion

imnuso 10mo ago

Agreed

𝕞𝕪𝕡𝕒𝕥𝕙𝕥𝕠𝕗𝕚𝕣𝕖 10mo ago

So M2 trumps 4 year cycle? The diminishing returns are true?

Cyph3rp9nk 10mo ago

What no one sees is that the liquidity cycles have aligned very well with the 4 year cycles of Bitcoin, maybe Satoshi knew this, Satoshi was an expert in monetary theory.

On the other hand the decreasing returns are natural, to move the price of Bitcoin more and more money is needed as its capitalization is increasing.

Only a hyperinflationary event would break this, the global money supply (m2) has a fairly steady growth, around 6-10% per year.

𝕞𝕪𝕡𝕒𝕥𝕙𝕥𝕠𝕗𝕚𝕣𝕖 10mo ago

I totally see that alignment and it seems we had an extended protracted period now and expansion is only just ramping up which is probably going to miss this cycle. Which makes things curious what happens next year.

lesco 10mo ago

can’t predict with math a new kind of asset with total scarcity

a few “news” can destroy every model out there

Cyph3rp9nk 10mo ago

This has been said for years and prices are never the ones that predict the total and absolute value of scarcity....

The shares of a company are also limited...when they make a split it is nothing more than adding decimals to bitcoin....