Bitcoin was $26k when Broken Money was published.
Discussion
And it was $65k before that…come on earlier classes…stop moving the goalposts. Something rotten is going on.
And it was $6.9k before that, when I first recommended it.
NGU is required for bitcoin to be successful. It has to be a superior storer of value over space and time. Risk-adjusted. For those who adopted in 2021, it has not been a superior storer of value over time.
Every bitcoin analyst and influencer has been wrong about this “cycle” … those of us who adopted in 2020/2021 have out both our capital and reputations at risk for this asset and that trust in the protocol has not been rewarded by the market.
Something is off and it is worth trying to understand what and how and to call out any bad actors who are actively manipulating the purchasing power of bitcoin.
Analysts and influencers suggesting “we haven’t been patient enough” is disingenuous and I think you understand well enough what I am saying and why there is a large contingent with negative sentiment…and maybe a growing resentment of those earlier classes who have enjoyed their windfall and now are changing their tune as we enter into the longest period without meaningful risk-adjusted returns over an entire halving cycle.
Yep it’s been disappointing lately. I expected $150k in 2025 but we only got to $126k.
That’s what diversification is for.
Come on Lyn, so something
Do*
It isn’t “do something” … it’s don’t “move the goalposts” … don’t act as if everything is fine and if you’re not acting like everything is fine then “you’re a part of the problem” or “should have known better”. No other bitcoin adopters have gone this long without a period of euphoria to help with the pain of the volatility.
Every analyst and influencer who is acting like “everything is fine” had a large allocation that has gone through a 10x+ windfall. Those who made a large allocation during the last euphoric bull run have held for ~4+ years, went through an 80% drawdown, and are now up less than 2x on that allocation. That’s bad risk management for an investor.
Bitcoin has recently failed on a key tenet of acting as money (transmit value over space and time) for those people. Maybe there are not many of us, but more INFLOOENCERS should show some empathy to those of us who are bitcoiners but have been put through significant pain for coming up on 5 years without relief.
Anyone who discovered the Bitcoin bug in 2021 has been rug pulled from an exponential move in dollar terms, I share that frustration.
The reality is, if we are complaining about only a 2x from the 2021 TOP we are spoiled. A good bitcoiner DCA’s to level out the volatility anyway.
Lyn will say “No one is owed a bull market”
Just have to face the fact that dollar performance did not match exuberant expectations.
I disagree. If someone (🙋🏼♂️) held through the 80% drawdown then they’re 100% “owed a bull market” if bitcoin is what we say it is…that is a superior money, moving value over space and time. Risk-adjusted returns require compensation for that downside volatility. Absolute returns are a useless measure. It’s all about volatility adjusted returns.
Yeah unfortunately who "owes" people this? We can't just go crying to someone and demand a bull run. The best we can do is try to convince others to opt out of fiat.
Or get used to the idea that maybe Bitcoin will never actually be the money of the world. Maybe it being freedom money for a small portion of open minded people is good enough.
Revolutions almost always fail. I'm all in on this one sink or swim.
I think the challenge for bitcoin is that in order to be a superior monetary technology, it MUST transmit superior value over space and time. As soon as it loses one or both of those functions for a long duration, the thesis starts to implode. I agree that people can't get caught up on short duration price fluctuations but 5 years isn't a short duration. It needs to perform on a risk-adjusted basis when we start to talk about 4+ year durations. Either bitcoin is a superior money technology or it isn't. There isn't a huge amount of ambiguity on whether the thesis is holding.
> diversification
#btcfail
#btcfail