"How much #Bitcoin do I need to never have to work again?" 💭
We calculate conservatively - with the lower power-law band (-65 % below the fair price).
Worst case.
'Realistic'.
Long term.
35 years
Start: next year
The power-law model describes the long-term growth path of Bitcoin.
BTC has been following a power function for over 16 years.
We take the lower band (-65%) - i.e. the worst-case scenario.
This puts us below the historical average.
Current price (low) ~50k
What does a simple but good life cost per year? (without luxury but with a lot of freedom 😏)
🇹🇭 Thailand → USD 15,000
🇸🇻 El Salvador → 21 000 USD
🇩🇪 Germany → 30 000 USD
Before you complain:
Important: These are AVERAGE COSTS and they are INDIVIDUAL
We assume:
Once a year, Bitcoin reaches the lower power-law band (-65%).
We are the best "traders" and always sell exactly then 😜
Fees, inflation?
Negligible - we are in the worst case.
If you bluntly extrapolate the power law over 40 years, you end up with a BTC price of USD 57 million (at the lower band! ). 😅
That is unrealistic.
Therefore:
👉 4 power-law cycles until 2040 (16 years)
👉 After that: 4% real growth p. a.
Why 4%?
The figure comes from the Trinity Study.
It says that if you withdraw only 4% of your assets each year, you can theoretically live on them forever.
Example:
USD 20,000 expenditure ⇒ USD 500,000 portfolio ⇒ 4 %.
Common on the financial market: 50 % shares and 50 % bonds portfolio
Summarized:
- 16 years Power-Law, 65% below fair price
- Annual costs: 15k / 21k / 30k
- From 2040 only +4 % p.a.
Ready for the result?
Then zap 😜
—-
🇹🇭 Thailand
Fixed costs: 15 000 USD/year
Until 2040 you need ~0.9 BTC.
In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.
4 % rule: 15 000 / 0.04 = 375 000 USD ≈ 0.2 BTC.
👉 0.9 BTC by 2040 + 0.2 BTC reserve = 1.1 BTC 🥳
🇸🇻 El Salvador
Fixed costs: 21 000 USD/year
By 2040 you will need ~1.3 BTC.
In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.
4 % rule: 21 000 / 0.04 = 525 000 USD ≈ 0.25 BTC.
👉 1.3 BTC by 2040 + 0.25 BTC = 1.55 BTC 🥳
🇩🇪 Germany
Fixed costs: 30 000 USD/year
By 2040 you need ~1.8 BTC.
In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.
4 % rule: 30 000 / 0.04 = 750 000 USD ≈ 0.37 BTC.
👉 1.8 BTC + 0.37 BTC = 2.17 BTC
Points of criticism:
1️⃣ Will Bitcoin continue to grow exponentially?
2️⃣ Cost of living varies greatly.
3️⃣ Taxes & lifestyle play a role.
But: The power law has remained surprisingly robust since 2009.
Image: Power law (fair + lower price) until 2040, 4% thereafter
Enough even in the power-law worst case:
🇹🇭 ~1.1 BTC
🇸🇻 ~1.55 BTC
🇩🇪 ~2.17 BTC
I would like to build a dynamic calculator 😂What do you think?
Am I making a mistake?
Pictures:
1) Thailand 15k
2) El Salvador 21k
3) Germany 30k
4) Power Law lower Band + Price 4 % P.a from 2041-2060
5) power law
