La vida es buena

Aber ehrlich gesagt habe ich deinen Tweet nur gesehen, weil du mir gefolgt bist und ich auf dein Profil geklickt habe.
Ich checke es auch noch nicht ganz
Hi, if it works I will Copy your Relais π
Doch wieder auf X?
In ein paar Tagen ist meine Account endgΓΌltig gelΓΆscht π
π―
π― + Eat some eggs
The only problem I have right now is the hot sand under my feet.

"How much #Bitcoin do I need to never have to work again?" π
We calculate conservatively - with the lower power-law band (-65 % below the fair price).
Worst case.
'Realistic'.
Long term.
35 years
Start: next year
The power-law model describes the long-term growth path of Bitcoin.
BTC has been following a power function for over 16 years.
We take the lower band (-65%) - i.e. the worst-case scenario.
This puts us below the historical average.
Current price (low) ~50k
What does a simple but good life cost per year? (without luxury but with a lot of freedom π)
πΉπ Thailand β USD 15,000
πΈπ» El Salvador β 21 000 USD
π©πͺ Germany β 30 000 USD
Before you complain:
Important: These are AVERAGE COSTS and they are INDIVIDUAL
We assume:
Once a year, Bitcoin reaches the lower power-law band (-65%).
We are the best "traders" and always sell exactly then π
Fees, inflation?
Negligible - we are in the worst case.
If you bluntly extrapolate the power law over 40 years, you end up with a BTC price of USD 57 million (at the lower band! ). π
That is unrealistic.
Therefore:
π 4 power-law cycles until 2040 (16 years)
π After that: 4% real growth p. a.
Why 4%?
The figure comes from the Trinity Study.
It says that if you withdraw only 4% of your assets each year, you can theoretically live on them forever.
Example:
USD 20,000 expenditure β USD 500,000 portfolio β 4 %.
Common on the financial market: 50 % shares and 50 % bonds portfolio
Summarized:
- 16 years Power-Law, 65% below fair price
- Annual costs: 15k / 21k / 30k
- From 2040 only +4 % p.a.
Ready for the result?
Then zap π
β-
πΉπ Thailand
Fixed costs: 15 000 USD/year
Until 2040 you need ~0.9 BTC.
In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.
4 % rule: 15 000 / 0.04 = 375 000 USD β 0.2 BTC.
π 0.9 BTC by 2040 + 0.2 BTC reserve = 1.1 BTC π₯³
πΈπ» El Salvador
Fixed costs: 21 000 USD/year
By 2040 you will need ~1.3 BTC.
In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.
4 % rule: 21 000 / 0.04 = 525 000 USD β 0.25 BTC.
π 1.3 BTC by 2040 + 0.25 BTC = 1.55 BTC π₯³
π©πͺ Germany
Fixed costs: 30 000 USD/year
By 2040 you need ~1.8 BTC.
In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.
4 % rule: 30 000 / 0.04 = 750 000 USD β 0.37 BTC.
π 1.8 BTC + 0.37 BTC = 2.17 BTC
Points of criticism:
1οΈβ£ Will Bitcoin continue to grow exponentially?
2οΈβ£ Cost of living varies greatly.
3οΈβ£ Taxes & lifestyle play a role.
But: The power law has remained surprisingly robust since 2009.
Image: Power law (fair + lower price) until 2040, 4% thereafter
Enough even in the power-law worst case:
πΉπ ~1.1 BTC
πΈπ» ~1.55 BTC
π©πͺ ~2.17 BTC
I would like to build a dynamic calculator πWhat do you think?
Am I making a mistake?
Pictures:
1) Thailand 15k
2) El Salvador 21k
3) Germany 30k
4) Power Law lower Band + Price 4 % P.a from 2041-2060
5) power law






For real Bitcoiners, an mNAV from Strategy under 1 is the only logical outcome β everything else is fiat thinking.
If you apply the financial market rules to Bitcoin:
The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio per year β meaning you need about 25Γ your annual expenses to be financially independent.
With Bitcoin, assuming a long-term 10% real return (which is quite conservative), you could theoretically withdraw 5β6% per year.
If you stick to around 4%, your portfolio would likely keep growing over time (in usd terms)
Example: $40,000 annual expenses β ~β¬1 million needed.
If you only need only $20,000 a year (e.g., living in Thailand or a low-cost country), youβd need about $500,000 β but thatβs a riskier setup.
The question is: how high are your annual costs? π
The road to control is always paved with convenience.
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