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Bahibo
99ab068b7901c102a84afe128d0b8de9ec0221417e447639af52243ab50b8e1f

La vida es buena

Aber ehrlich gesagt habe ich deinen Tweet nur gesehen, weil du mir gefolgt bist und ich auf dein Profil geklickt habe.

Ich checke es auch noch nicht ganz

Doch wieder auf X?

In ein paar Tagen ist meine Account endgΓΌltig gelΓΆscht πŸ˜…

The only problem I have right now is the hot sand under my feet.

Replying to Avatar Bahibo

"How much #Bitcoin do I need to never have to work again?" πŸ’­

We calculate conservatively - with the lower power-law band (-65 % below the fair price).

Worst case.

'Realistic'.

Long term.

35 years

Start: next year

The power-law model describes the long-term growth path of Bitcoin.

BTC has been following a power function for over 16 years.

We take the lower band (-65%) - i.e. the worst-case scenario.

This puts us below the historical average.

Current price (low) ~50k

What does a simple but good life cost per year? (without luxury but with a lot of freedom 😏)

πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡­ Thailand β†’ USD 15,000

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡» El Salvador β†’ 21 000 USD

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Germany β†’ 30 000 USD

Before you complain:

Important: These are AVERAGE COSTS and they are INDIVIDUAL

We assume:

Once a year, Bitcoin reaches the lower power-law band (-65%).

We are the best "traders" and always sell exactly then 😜

Fees, inflation?

Negligible - we are in the worst case.

If you bluntly extrapolate the power law over 40 years, you end up with a BTC price of USD 57 million (at the lower band! ). πŸ˜…

That is unrealistic.

Therefore:

πŸ‘‰ 4 power-law cycles until 2040 (16 years)

πŸ‘‰ After that: 4% real growth p. a.

Why 4%?

The figure comes from the Trinity Study.

It says that if you withdraw only 4% of your assets each year, you can theoretically live on them forever.

Example:

USD 20,000 expenditure β‡’ USD 500,000 portfolio β‡’ 4 %.

Common on the financial market: 50 % shares and 50 % bonds portfolio

Summarized:

- 16 years Power-Law, 65% below fair price

- Annual costs: 15k / 21k / 30k

- From 2040 only +4 % p.a.

Ready for the result?

Then zap 😜

β€”-

πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡­ Thailand

Fixed costs: 15 000 USD/year

Until 2040 you need ~0.9 BTC.

In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.

4 % rule: 15 000 / 0.04 = 375 000 USD β‰ˆ 0.2 BTC.

πŸ‘‰ 0.9 BTC by 2040 + 0.2 BTC reserve = 1.1 BTC πŸ₯³

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡» El Salvador

Fixed costs: 21 000 USD/year

By 2040 you will need ~1.3 BTC.

In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.

4 % rule: 21 000 / 0.04 = 525 000 USD β‰ˆ 0.25 BTC.

πŸ‘‰ 1.3 BTC by 2040 + 0.25 BTC = 1.55 BTC πŸ₯³

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Germany

Fixed costs: 30 000 USD/year

By 2040 you need ~1.8 BTC.

In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.

4 % rule: 30 000 / 0.04 = 750 000 USD β‰ˆ 0.37 BTC.

πŸ‘‰ 1.8 BTC + 0.37 BTC = 2.17 BTC

Points of criticism:

1️⃣ Will Bitcoin continue to grow exponentially?

2️⃣ Cost of living varies greatly.

3️⃣ Taxes & lifestyle play a role.

But: The power law has remained surprisingly robust since 2009.

Image: Power law (fair + lower price) until 2040, 4% thereafter

Enough even in the power-law worst case:

πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡­ ~1.1 BTC

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡» ~1.55 BTC

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ ~2.17 BTC

I would like to build a dynamic calculator πŸ˜‚What do you think?

Am I making a mistake?

Pictures:

1) Thailand 15k

2) El Salvador 21k

3) Germany 30k

4) Power Law lower Band + Price 4 % P.a from 2041-2060

5) power law

"How much #Bitcoin do I need to never have to work again?" πŸ’­

We calculate conservatively - with the lower power-law band (-65 % below the fair price).

Worst case.

'Realistic'.

Long term.

35 years

Start: next year

The power-law model describes the long-term growth path of Bitcoin.

BTC has been following a power function for over 16 years.

We take the lower band (-65%) - i.e. the worst-case scenario.

This puts us below the historical average.

Current price (low) ~50k

What does a simple but good life cost per year? (without luxury but with a lot of freedom 😏)

πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡­ Thailand β†’ USD 15,000

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡» El Salvador β†’ 21 000 USD

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Germany β†’ 30 000 USD

Before you complain:

Important: These are AVERAGE COSTS and they are INDIVIDUAL

We assume:

Once a year, Bitcoin reaches the lower power-law band (-65%).

We are the best "traders" and always sell exactly then 😜

Fees, inflation?

Negligible - we are in the worst case.

If you bluntly extrapolate the power law over 40 years, you end up with a BTC price of USD 57 million (at the lower band! ). πŸ˜…

That is unrealistic.

Therefore:

πŸ‘‰ 4 power-law cycles until 2040 (16 years)

πŸ‘‰ After that: 4% real growth p. a.

Why 4%?

The figure comes from the Trinity Study.

It says that if you withdraw only 4% of your assets each year, you can theoretically live on them forever.

Example:

USD 20,000 expenditure β‡’ USD 500,000 portfolio β‡’ 4 %.

Common on the financial market: 50 % shares and 50 % bonds portfolio

Summarized:

- 16 years Power-Law, 65% below fair price

- Annual costs: 15k / 21k / 30k

- From 2040 only +4 % p.a.

Ready for the result?

Then zap 😜

β€”-

πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡­ Thailand

Fixed costs: 15 000 USD/year

Until 2040 you need ~0.9 BTC.

In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.

4 % rule: 15 000 / 0.04 = 375 000 USD β‰ˆ 0.2 BTC.

πŸ‘‰ 0.9 BTC by 2040 + 0.2 BTC reserve = 1.1 BTC πŸ₯³

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡» El Salvador

Fixed costs: 21 000 USD/year

By 2040 you will need ~1.3 BTC.

In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.

4 % rule: 21 000 / 0.04 = 525 000 USD β‰ˆ 0.25 BTC.

πŸ‘‰ 1.3 BTC by 2040 + 0.25 BTC = 1.55 BTC πŸ₯³

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Germany

Fixed costs: 30 000 USD/year

By 2040 you need ~1.8 BTC.

In 2040, the BTC price (lower band) is ~2 million USD.

4 % rule: 30 000 / 0.04 = 750 000 USD β‰ˆ 0.37 BTC.

πŸ‘‰ 1.8 BTC + 0.37 BTC = 2.17 BTC

Points of criticism:

1️⃣ Will Bitcoin continue to grow exponentially?

2️⃣ Cost of living varies greatly.

3️⃣ Taxes & lifestyle play a role.

But: The power law has remained surprisingly robust since 2009.

Image: Power law (fair + lower price) until 2040, 4% thereafter

Enough even in the power-law worst case:

πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡­ ~1.1 BTC

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡» ~1.55 BTC

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ ~2.17 BTC

I would like to build a dynamic calculator πŸ˜‚What do you think?

Am I making a mistake?

Pictures:

1) Thailand 15k

2) El Salvador 21k

3) Germany 30k

4) Power Law lower Band + Price 4 % P.a from 2041-2060

5) power law

For real Bitcoiners, an mNAV from Strategy under 1 is the only logical outcome β€” everything else is fiat thinking.

Replying to Avatar Gigi

GM

β€œTrending 24h post” wow πŸ˜‚

If you apply the financial market rules to Bitcoin:

The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio per year β€” meaning you need about 25Γ— your annual expenses to be financially independent.

With Bitcoin, assuming a long-term 10% real return (which is quite conservative), you could theoretically withdraw 5–6% per year.

If you stick to around 4%, your portfolio would likely keep growing over time (in usd terms)

Example: $40,000 annual expenses β†’ ~€1 million needed.

If you only need only $20,000 a year (e.g., living in Thailand or a low-cost country), you’d need about $500,000 β€” but that’s a riskier setup.

The question is: how high are your annual costs? 😜