Roughly every 10 minutes 6.25 new #bitcoin are mined.
On average, bitcoin addresses holding less than 100 coins buy 17.2 bitcoin more every 10 minutes.
I wonder how long that is sustainable.
Discussion
A little follow up math.
Assume the 17.2 coins purchased every 10 minutes is all #plebchain DCAs. I mean a fixed number of dollars flowing into bitcoin that is unchanging in response to price action.
I'm that case, equilibrium #bitcoin price to get the number of sats bought to match newly mined is $71,500 today.
After halving equilibrium price for that number of fixed dollars is $143,000.
Assumptions,
1. Bitcoiners will continue to DCA and hodl at current or higher rates.
2. Price will adjust until supply equals demand.
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Let's see...that's all the new supply, plus 1,584 more coins, gobbled up per day. If carried on through the current halving epoch, that'd be all new supply + 428k coins. If the same demand remains through next halving epoch, that'd be current supply + about 3m coins over those 4 years.
So call it 3.5m coins over next 4.5 years.
Haven't looked at liquid vs illiquid supply in a while...I think liquid supply is only 1-2 million coins.
The only way that this can carry on is for long-term hodlers to become more enticed by what they can trade their sats than they're enticed by hodling them.
Hodlers are very enticed by holding sats 😎
Indeed we are. I feel pretty safe no one can rebut my axioms. I may not have nailed the numbers, other factors will change. More plebs will join the army of holders is also a pretty safe axiom and that pushes the equilibrium price up. I don't see any big changes that lower the price from here except deepening recession forcing some to sell or cut DCAs to make ends meet.
I feel pretty confidant QE comes just in time for the gov refinancing that is due the next 2 years.
Remember that former bitcoiner you met? The one who got orange pilled, went down the rabbit hole, had the majority of his net worth in bitcoin, then changed his mind and aped back into dollars? Me neither.
It's a one-way function...numbers might change here and there, but the trend is undeniable.
You're spot-on about the debt rolling over being the impetus for more massive QE (aka sanctioned counterfeit of USD)
