And I know that in prior cycles, bull curve steepening usually leads to recession, while bull curve steepening is usually the preferred way out of inversion.
What happens when we get both at the same time?
Discussion
Boooom
Maybe. Or, we get what LOOKS 'strong and resilient' in nominal terms all amid accelerating debasement.
What may be curious is figuring out at what tenor we cross from negative to positive real yields, because at some point with falling short rates we should absolutely anticipate a return to negative real rates on the short end, as we had for years.
Turns currency today into a hot potato everyone tries to throw further and further into the future.
If You would measure inflation correctly (maybe by credit growth or a broader M) real rates along the YC in most european countries never went positive or only for a few weeks at the top. In the US it's different, the economy is by far more robust. Do You share this view?
I do -- though I do have to wonder what measuring inflation correctly could ever truly be given that we don't really have a way to measure money supply, and no basket of goods and services is ever truly complete enough to be a representative sample. Never mind that over time general consumption habits change -- shall we still weight the price of cigarettes with the same weight that we did in 1995?
Though I'm not sure I'd say it's that the US economy is so robust, so much as that the US financial sector reaps the rewards of the Cantillon effect, by which it is able to buy from all of the various prosperous economies of the world, in a somewhat neo-colonial arrangement. Arguably this serves to impoverish many in the US, much the same as how the Bank of England's hegemony in the 18th and 19th century didn't mean everything was rosey for working class brits. Just rosey enough to keep the army and police interested in keeping the populace from rising up.
GM. Very good points. We can only approximate, because even with the best calculation, every household has its own consumption preferences. Do you know the organization 'truflation'? They have developed a very good way of calculating inflation. You can find it under this name on X
Yea, I've seem 'em around. It's better than CPI. Nothing's really perfect since gold has been demonetized, and that was only ever really as good as could be hoped for.
As BTC grows its base of economic activity its price relative to USD will approach a good measure but its far too small as of yet.