I could just be too tired, but if black is the median, blue is 2022, red is 2023, and the gray area means it’s the extremes (the total range seen in the data) from 2010 to 2023. Doesn’t that mean that the present period (red 2023) is a not as bad as it has been in the last decade, which for housing loan growth was decent before interest rates increased?. This metric has been worse than it is right now. And this data isn’t from the 2008/2009 housing subprime disaster. So there was a time between 2010 and the present where the loan growth was worse than it is now. That doesn’t seem that foreboding to me. I have to imagine the absolute extreme was 2020? Would be interesting to have that context. But with interest rates at recent highs it would make all the sense in the world for the housing market to be slowing down. Again I could be too tired to read a graph at the moment.
