According to the CIA world fact book ๐ต๏ธ (2021), below is a list of countries with shrinking populations and the number of years it will take for their populations to reach 50% of current levels.
These numbers are ๐ถ births/deaths ๐ only and do not include immigration (most of them have net emigration). To put the Ukraine war in the correct contextโฆ Eastern Europe was already collapsing , as these populations collapse it should be obvious that all of these countries will sooner or later be bankrupt. ๐โโ๏ธ
These countries have a combined GDP of $14 trillion ๐ธ, their combined population today is 574 million. A Malthusian disaster is underway here.
Bulgaria ๐ง๐ฌ
Population change: -6.0
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.06) โ 11.9 years
Croatia ๐ญ๐ท
Population change: -2.6
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.026) โ 26.7 years
Estonia ๐ช๐ช
Population change: -1.1
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.011) โ 63.5 years
Georgia ๐ฌ๐ช
Population change: -1.3
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.013) โ 53.5 years
Greece ๐ฌ๐ท
Population change: -2.0
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.02) โ 34.6 years
Hungary ๐ญ๐บ
Population change: -3.1
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.031) โ 22.3 years
Japan ๐ฏ๐ต
Population change: -2.6
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.026) โ 26.7 years
Latvia ๐ฑ๐ป
Population change: -5.3
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.053) โ 13.2 years
Lithuania ๐ฑ๐น
Population change: -3.6
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.036) โ 19.3 years
Moldova ๐ฒ๐ฉ
Population change: -2.9
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.029) โ 23.8 years
Poland ๐ต๐ฑ
Population change: -1.2
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.012) โ 57.8 years
Portugal ๐ต๐น
Population change: -2.5
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.025) โ 27.7 years
Romania ๐ท๐ด
Population change: -4.1
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.041) โ 16.9 years
Serbia ๐ท๐ธ
Population change: -3.0
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.03) โ 23.1 years
Ukraine ๐บ๐ฆ
Population change: -4.6
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.046) โ 15.2 years
Russia ๐ท๐บ
Population change: -1.6
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.016) โ 43.4 years
Italy ๐ฎ๐น
Population change: -3.2
Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.032) โ 21 years
On current trends, it will take just 30.6 years for the 574 million combined population of these countries to fall to 287 million, doubling their debt burden per capitaโฆ assuming zero future deficit spending. ๐ฑ
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