According to the CIA world fact book ๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ (2021), below is a list of countries with shrinking populations and the number of years it will take for their populations to reach 50% of current levels.

These numbers are ๐Ÿ‘ถ births/deaths ๐Ÿ’€ only and do not include immigration (most of them have net emigration). To put the Ukraine war in the correct contextโ€ฆ Eastern Europe was already collapsing , as these populations collapse it should be obvious that all of these countries will sooner or later be bankrupt. ๐Ÿ™‡โ€โ™‚๏ธ

These countries have a combined GDP of $14 trillion ๐Ÿ’ธ, their combined population today is 574 million. A Malthusian disaster is underway here.

Bulgaria ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ

Population change: -6.0

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.06) โ‰ˆ 11.9 years

Croatia ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท

Population change: -2.6

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.026) โ‰ˆ 26.7 years

Estonia ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช

Population change: -1.1

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.011) โ‰ˆ 63.5 years

Georgia ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช

Population change: -1.3

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.013) โ‰ˆ 53.5 years

Greece ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท

Population change: -2.0

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.02) โ‰ˆ 34.6 years

Hungary ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ

Population change: -3.1

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.031) โ‰ˆ 22.3 years

Japan ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต

Population change: -2.6

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.026) โ‰ˆ 26.7 years

Latvia ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป

Population change: -5.3

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.053) โ‰ˆ 13.2 years

Lithuania ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น

Population change: -3.6

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.036) โ‰ˆ 19.3 years

Moldova ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ

Population change: -2.9

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.029) โ‰ˆ 23.8 years

Poland ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ

Population change: -1.2

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.012) โ‰ˆ 57.8 years

Portugal ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น

Population change: -2.5

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.025) โ‰ˆ 27.7 years

Romania ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด

Population change: -4.1

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.041) โ‰ˆ 16.9 years

Serbia ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ

Population change: -3.0

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.03) โ‰ˆ 23.1 years

Ukraine ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

Population change: -4.6

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.046) โ‰ˆ 15.2 years

Russia ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ

Population change: -1.6

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.016) โ‰ˆ 43.4 years

Italy ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น

Population change: -3.2

Years to halve: ln(0.5) / ln(1 - 0.032) โ‰ˆ 21 years

On current trends, it will take just 30.6 years for the 574 million combined population of these countries to fall to 287 million, doubling their debt burden per capitaโ€ฆ assuming zero future deficit spending. ๐Ÿ˜ฑ

โšก๏ธ โšก๏ธ Bitcoin is inevitable โšก๏ธ โšก๏ธ

What is it with ex communist Central and Eastern European countriesโ€ฆ

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Discussion

As far as I can see.

1). Young people emigrating

2). Temporary collapse in birth rate during 90โ€™s following USSR collapse, echoes.

3). Aging population

4). Usual stuff of urbanisation, rising wealth, contraception, etc.

Yeah all of the above. Less pressure to settle down and have kids like their parents and grandparents also